We are gonna win, win, win. We're going to win in lane, we're going to win in draft, we're going to win with superior early game aggression, we're going to win at everything. And some of you are friends and you're going to call, and you're going to say, 'Mr. Damonte, please, we
can't take it anymore, we can't win anymore like this, Mr. Damonte, you're driving us crazy, you're winning too much, please Mr. Damonte, not so much, and I'm going to say I'm sorry, we're going to keep winning because we are going to make Golden Guardians great again
Dunc: Using this as a copy pasta once we win - thanks :)
Empyre: GO GET EM, TANNER!
Vulcan: LETS GO TANNNER "DAMONTE" DAMONTE!!!!
TL (Twitter): 🧭🧭🧭🧭
To celebrate our LCS team making playoffs, we’re re-releasing the fan-favorite white jersey. Available now for a limited time! tsmshop.com
TL had their best LCS finish ever. Really impressive since it was such a competitive split and they brought in a rookie.
Markz Predictions - TL, C9, & FLY are the 3 teams for Worlds. TSM fall to FLY in loser bracket. (in that order)
Pr0lly Predictions - TL, C9, & FLY are the 3 teams for Worlds. TSM fall to FLY in loser bracket. (in that order)
Crumbz Predictions - TL, FLY, & C9 are the 3 teams for Worlds. TSM fall to C9 in loser bracket. (in that order)
Buffed Champs: Bot: Lucian/MF/Jinx/Tristana/Morgana/Rakan. Top Split Pushers: Akali/Jax/Fiora. Good for TSM.
ALL Predict TSMWIN vs Golden Guardians. Crumbz 3-1. Markz/Pr0lly 3-2.
Prediction: TSM 3-2 GG #LCS
Empyre (EG Analyst & Scout):
TSM vs. GG should be quite close unless Bjergsen 1v9 shows up in every game. New big patch with short prep time will make things spicy (GG had an extra day or so to prepare since they didn't play LCS on Sunday if that makes any difference).
Meteos - Hauntzer felt safe because his jungler was nearby. (Successful FB gank top on Hauntzer)
Sneaky - Wants to see the Manamune on Ashe, Meteos like the potential IE/ER on Ashe. (~8)
Meteos - Treatz not going mobis doesn't feel nearly as threatening.
Huge play by TSM (~11:50 Drag). Got a kill, dragon steal, and gold from Herald.
Meteos - Cait needs to do well early or she's going to have a period in the mid game where her damage just really sucks ass. (~11:40)
Sneaky - Game is a lot harder since Hauntzer died early
Meteos - First gank by Spica was really well played. Wards the red and then hops to golems. Sees Closer pathing up and knows exactly how much time he has to make this play top. (going over during long pause)
Probably figured Sett wouldn't be at raptors since Sett doesn't do raptors well. Initial intent was to steal raptors but he saw Sett there so he went for the top play. Good thinking by Spica.
Meteos - Jensen is DDOSing this match. Sneaky - Why would he DDOS this match? Meteos - IDK. He just likes doing it for fun.
Meteos reading guy in chat: "To prevent the Bjergsen MVP"
Sneaky - TSM fighting here at drag would be kind of rough since Cait still only has 25% crit which is pretty bad. (~21:40)
Shen had ult for Cait that entire time. (4th drag fight)
Meteos - A lot of NA team just default to grouping mid, getting baron river vision and just randomly hitting baron when they don't know what to do next. Says he participated in that a couple of times as well.(~24)
Seems really hard for GG since they're up against 4 merc treads, QSS, mikaels (~26min)
Sneaky - Can't believe Ziggs ulted BB when he got arrowed. Waste. (26:30, TSM get the drag and Closer's life) Meteos agrees the Ziggs ult was really troll. Thinks that the comms from GG were like "we can't let them have drag here!" and that's when disaster hits.
Sneaky/Meteos - BB didn't accomplish much in the mid fight. Fight got really awkward when Bjerg got binded and BB taunted nobody. (Mid blunder into Baron)
Meteos - GG just win. WTF, Morde is not balanced at all. (~31:30)
Meteos - Brokenblade really didn't play that mid fight well. Although, he didn't really have many good options. FBI had a really big dick flash in.
Sneaky - Doublelift just netted into Mordekaiser. Also Treatz flayed Hauntzer out of DL's trap.
Meteos - these plays are easy to criticize in hindsight but I think we couldn't really make the right play in the moment.
LS w/ Crownie & Nemesis:
LS what about Hecarim top? They should've picked Hec top. (GG)
Nemesis - Leesin pathing got caught by the hawkshot ~ Should be able to track him for the next minute.(2:40)
LS - Surprised GG didn't cheater around ~3:30
Nemesis/Crownie - Cheater is worse with TP and they saw Lee Sin on the opposite side. LS thinks it would've been fine to get cull and stay in lane.
Crownie - Cait/Thresh are capable of one shotting waves. Morg Ashe are playing the lane wrong so far. (~6:50)
LS - Drag steal by Spica and rift getting all those plates is MASSIVE for TSM. Game seems doomed for GG. (~12min).
Nemesis - TSM already have 4 mr items at 15min and LS says TSM's team doesn't like building MR early "h'ooookaayy"
Nemesis asks LS about the early MR items since he came back. "What happened LS?"
LS - Yeah. Looks like they're actually itemizing good. Thinks this MR itemization is happening really early but that's because they're ahead.
LS - Scrims are different from stage. You don't have the mental capability to change the fact that there is now something on the line vs something not on the line. You're naturally more reckless in scrims. Willingness to experiment goes up and you're more willing to take fights. It's just a natural thing that happens. (Watching GGS's show during break).
LS - GG are probably going to win now that TSM blundered the mid fight and gave GG baron. Thinks this because the baron buff will naturally translate into Ocean soul.
This isn't a pause, GGS just ffed. (3rd drag pause)
What a turnaround from Golden Guardians! That game went from TSM dominating to TSMs next exploding in about 2 minutes flat! Interested to see how TSM will look in game 2 after what has to be an absolutely TILTing loss. #LCS
hauntzer mvp from game 1 for sure
If only there was some way to escape morde ulti. thinking emoji
I think Mordekaiser is fed.
Damn, what a spicy fight. FBI flash forward for the Bjergsen kill was big.
Underrated part of that game: The only player who can realistically break Black Shield is Bjergsen. Otherwise FBI can straight up ignore the TSM frontline. Really, really big deal in that fight.
FBI is a fucking god. Solo won that fight (I know, binding was sick, hauntzer played well.)
Travis Gafford: Solo plays for FlyQuest....
someone didn't pay their QSS tax
Golden Guardians (Twitter):
First LCS Ziggs win since 2016 - It's Tanner Time @Damonte
damwho gaming? not so top esports? Gwho esports? Golden Guardians are going to fly to Shanghai and bring back the Summoner's Cup to where it was made.
Hatrixx (Excel Mid):
If Damonte has a million fans, i am one of them . if Damonte has ten fans, i am one of them. if Damonte only has one fan, thats me. if Damonte has no fans, that means i am no longer on this earth . if the world is against the Damonte, i am against the world
There is way too much downtime inbetween LCS Games, I understand we need the casters analysis but it feels weird when the analysis is longer than the game.
Azael: It's literally a set amount of time that's the same every game (barring tech issues), which is to give the players time to use the bathroom, get food, discuss changes etc. It's nothing to do w/ casters wanting to talk lol
Sorry, maybe i phrased it wrong i didn't mean to say that it's for the casters, i moreso meant theres too much downtime where all we see as the viewers is the casters talking and it usually seems pretty repetitive because theres only so much you can talk about postgame
When does the next game start? Omg...
Meteos & Sneaky:
Meteos - they took Thresh into Morg. I think it's not a straight up counter pick but you're not winning. Why not Lux/Nami? Optimizes the Cait pick.
Sneaky - Doesn't even need to shit on lane. Just needs to go even to become a monster. Thresh doesn't really help her go even. Lux would've been soo much pressure. Meteos agrees.
Sneaky - Lulu Cait would've be fine too. Not amazing but fine. Lulu doesn't have a set-up for trap but Cait's dmg goes up.
LS w/ SK Crownshot & Fnatic Nemesis & Sanchovies
LS - Ready for the salty run back?
Crownie - The Bard is better than Thresh
Nemesis - Here comes the B4 Leesin. TAKE IT AWAY
Crownie - TSM's comp is generally the same.
LS - GG hard win the draft.
Former C9 Sneaky & 100T Meteos
Both sides keeping the same sides.
Meteos - Casters are saying Cait Zyra. I think Zyra is a completely shit champion. She doesn't do anyting. Just a laning phase champ. Cds are long. Immobile and Squishy.
Sneaky - For sure, I think Lux is the pick.
Meteos - Zyra is the worst champ in the game right now...
Meteos - Bard is a much better pick!
Sneaky - Cait Bard is all about the level 6 timing early on. Ashe should be able to solo pressure this lane.
Sneaky & Meteos
Sneaky - Doesn't think the Doran's shield is correct. Cull or Dorans is fine. You heal off autos, you're not just sitting back.
Meteos - Hawkshot is so broken, you can't mindgame the other jungler.
Sneaky - GG look really good unlike last game. They were bad until they weren't (7:30)
Sneaky - Looks like a team gap here (~8:25, Bjerg dies)
Meteos - Bjerg positioning was really weird. E didn't take him towards base. Good for him to save flash since he would've died no matter what.
Meteos - GG shouldn't have contested TSM's herald. It's a useless herald with no good targets for TSM to use it on. Ashe could've went bot and got free first tier turret. (Herald Fight ~15:50)
Sneaky - Hauntzer is kind of running it down for TSM (~21)
Sneaky - Ashe keeps missing arrows. Meteos - It's the short cd, fk it. She has cloud too.
Sneaky/Meteos - Spica stealing potential soul is huge but GG can potentially get Baron.
Coordination between DL & Treatz was off when DL got arrowed. DL could've taken portal. (~30)
Fights are TSM favored from this point on (38:30). Look at Bjerg's item- nvm they got backdoored with triple TP.
LS & Co.
Nemesis - How is GP losing to Ornn this hard? (~4)
Nemesis - What was that facecheck from Treatz? (4:20) Late flash too.
LS - TSM lose this game. Diffy in the Driffy. Ashe didn't even have to flash since they have GP ult.
LS - Game is over, what is BB even doing? (~12:30 engage onto Sett top) GG win and might 3-0
LS - Ziggs/Xerath/Vel'koz. The future of mid lane. So good. (~20:20)
LS - GG currently 5k ahead with the drags value. Thinks GG team comp is better too. Lee should've built Youmuus (22)
Nemesis talking about matchup mid - Ziggs wins early but uses more mana. LS agrees that it is Ziggs favored.
LS - Hauntzer's GP is bad. If he kited backwards instead of into TSM's team. GG win that 5v4. (~31min baron fight)
Crownshot - (Spica takes 6th drag, GG take Baron) it's troll for Treatz not to be in pit with DL. People are going to blame DL for positioning but Treatz should be in pit to portal people out.
LS dies laughing at the webcams glitching out for GG ~36:30
Nemesis still thinks GG win despite being aced in TSM's base. LS agrees due to comp diff.
LS - TSM can't draft for their lives... GG (triple backdoored)
bjergsen is carrying this game so hard holy shit. spica too. dlift is really not having a good game.
Huhi's black shields have been nice. fbi is a monster. this set has been v exciting so far.
fleet cait :puke:
Selfmade: she clearly needs lethal tempo to hit 4 ranged champions ure right veigar
stop ratioing me fleet is good here im just memeing it
POST GAME 2
We cant stop the backdoor in time and now we look to start the reverse sweep in game 3
That's 2-0! A clean teleport backdoor puts us at match point vs @TSM in the first round of #LCS Playoffs! One more game - let's wrap this up. #GGWIN
ROFL @GoldenGuardians WITH THE TRIPLE TP END CALL!! They go up 2-0 against @TSM in our first playoff series! #LCS
how broken is ziggs
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA HOLY????????????? as expected it's a 209 set thanks to big bot difference... wait a sec...
HOLY SHIT THAT ENDING! WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CALL FOR THE TRIPLE TP TO END THE GAME WITHOUT MINION! Golden Guardians about to sweep TSM out of playoffs!?!?
This is enough of a runback to be considered salty IMO
Well, congrats on winning @GoldenGuardians. There's no way that @TSM come back from an 0-2. #LCS
Hahaha our CLG Season 2 Worlds Triple TP Secret Strat has been passed down 8 years later to Golden Guardians with that spicy backdoor finish
GGS is too good or what
Phreak: Better hope TL picks them in round 2
At least GG didn't try to satchel charge the nexus KEKW
Empyre (EG Analyst):
Bot diff is proving to be a bit big in this series #LCS
TSM down 0-2 but the games have been close even with different TSM individuals playing badly. Next one will be telling assuming TSM adapts their botlane picks and what GG is trying to do to counter Azir-Caitlyn in draft.
Meteos & Sneaky:
Spica Bjergsen & Hauntzer(lol) are the only people playing good on TSM. It seems like a huge bot lane gap. Grand Canyon Gap.
Well, congrats on making the next round @GoldenGuardians . There's no way that @TSM come back from an 0-2. #LCS
BIG POG GAME ENDER GOLDEN GUARDIANS 2-0 TSM SO FAR!
A lot of people are clowning on TSM but that the game is unwinnable if there is ever a ward inside their base. The nexus instantly falls without the ability to respond vs. 3 TP with Ziggs and one turret dead. It's checkmate if GG are smart.
I thought TSM were supposed to be good. ???
Phreak: Frosk you've cast Worlds. You know they aren't.
Respect to TSM for keeping a solid team identity trading Soul for their nexus in 2 out of their last 3 games.
Glad to see ziggs having so much success. Him/Xerath/Vel'Koz have been the future of mid lane for almost a year...
Crumbz is right - I don’t understand why TSM isn’t opting for an enchanter into a 1-2 Morg blind; the only reason I could see is them being scared of a morg flex in some way which sounds really unlikely to me
Karma > Lulu
This is the only first round playoff series I thought could go the way of an upset - BUT - I fully did not expect us to be sitting on a 2-0 for @GoldenGuardians on the way to making that happen. The whole team has shown up at different moments, but none more than @VictorHuang !
LS w/ SK Crownshot & Fnatic Nemesis
TSM bans Morg LS: TSM are going to win every game now.
LS: There it is. Sett Thresh. There it is.
LS: Blitz would be good for GG since it destroys Sett's Shield. GG lock in Tahm WHAATTTT. I gotta go to the bathroom.....
Nemesis: Ok the Ashe is an answer to the Cait.
Sanch: Why did GG reverse the adcs?
Nemesis: They probably feel like they're better on both Ashe and Cait.
Nemesis: Noooo why Nid? So it's Sett mid blind...
LS: This makes it a really good Morde game. Hauntzer locks in Morde
LS doesn't like the Ori since she gets outranged by Nidalee/Ashe.
the GP pick here reminds LS of the TL game. It doesn't work well with the rest of his teammates.
LS: Doesn't like Sett, Nidalee does what with GP? Ashe/Thresh don't feel ideal to synergize with him.
Nemesis/LS - GG won draft.
Former C9 Sneaky & 100T Meteos
Ori is a good common blind.
TSM have to lane kingdom. They're really relying on Spica to carry this game.
Spica is known as a Nidalee/Graves player. So we'll see... It'll depend on the Jungle gap.
tsm should go nida on 3 and jinx on 4
retweets: Tsm botlane drafting is turbo autofilled level
So this is risky because TSM is putting their best player on a bruisetank, but it does give TSM 3 winning lanes and a lot of agency. Remember GG relies on snowballing games, so TSM is trying to counteract that instead of playing the scaling game.
TSM’s draft isn’t bad by any means, they adhere to normal P/B rules and the picks make sense; it’s just the bot lane hole has to be stuffed. I’d keep Cait blind, ban Ziggs in 4-5 and run the comp back after exchanging Bard for Karma (albeit Bard can be fine, just not ideal).
2-1, think TSM’s draft if they can play their champs is a lot better, GGs is not supposed to create a lead anywhere on the map; I hope Bjerg and Spica can execute their champs, their mid 2v2 is insane
Wtf TSM forgot to pick a mid laner
How is RGE supposed to beat TSM if they never make it to worlds?
RGE: We believe
Former C9 Sneaky & 100T Meteos
Bjerg is really punishing Damonte's cull first item. (3:20)
GP is going to be TSM's only advantage. ~19:30 Cloud dragon map actually saves TSM from Morde destroying them in that fight by Baron.
TSM showing signs of life at cloud soul with the double kill but they stack on drag so that Closer can fuck their Moms. Bjerg did his best to try and zone Closer. (Cloud soul fight)
LS & Co.
Morde flash is traded for Bjerg's ghost. That's a good trade for TSM.
Doublelift is losing really hard in CS what? (5min)
Crownshot/Nemesis: It's a really hard losing lane.
Nemesis: TSM can't kill anyone here. Big disaster for TSM. (drag fight)
LS/Crownshot: DL DIDN'T BUY. IT'S OVER.
Everyone: It's actually over. no joke. Plus they're tilting them with Teemo emotes.
Everyone: Comp imbalance and mistakes. Absolutely over.
DL TPs back to lane with just boots? Second time he's TP'd to lane without items...........
This game is a disaster
its actually a draft kingdom. GOOD JOB @inero
Holy shit... DoubleLift failed to buy BF sword during his teleport. This lane is so over.
Dash: 🤯 BOOM 🤯
Think this game is over. Despite it only being about a 3k dif, the draft imbalance is so big. Really doomed for TSM sadly. I don't know how they win outside of miracle GP fighting (~18min)
Can't lose to shopkeeper if you don't buy!
FBI intimidated Dlift into forgetting to buy. huge brain
Wait, what is this TSM comp in game 3? They have 0 reliable AP damage? Am I missing something?
GG 3-0! (18min)
Damn Huhi's been smurfing on support lately
I’m not a fan of any region or team, I am just a fan of whoever is playing the best League of Legends in the world. And right now, that just happens to be Golden Guardians.
Nicole LaPointe Jameson (EG Owner):
GoldenGuardians is going to worlds
TSM PLAYERS & STAFF
Gg we should have played better today, happy for my brother @closerlol❤️
Closer: Kral BB ♥
Guess we gotta do the G2 lower bracket run...
I played like shit and all I can say is I'll do a lot better in the next round
Really poor performance from me today, we will regroup and come back stronger for the next series. GGS played well and was clearly the better team today 👏
Azael: GGWP! Bjergsen was still a beast this series, but you played very well & as I said right before that if you can neutralize him yall could upset!
Nerf aussies btw
So in case you forgot... Rogue > TSM #GoRogue
Prove us wrong in the Loser Bracket
Congrats @GoldenGuardians on your historic first playoff series win over @TSM ! #LCS
GOLDEN GODS, GG @TSM GG kardesim @TSMBrokenblade
Destekleriniz için hepinize çok teşekkür ederim arkadaşlar
Imagine what would happen if we actually win drafts aswell @inero
TSM's botlane was so outclassed this series, really sad to see
That was a total and complete bot diff #LCS
holy shit @GoldenGuardians just 3-0'd TSM in playoffs that's sick
FBi & Huhi kinda pisssmurfed that series
And that's it! We 3-0 @TSM and move on to the Second Round of #LCS Playoffs! This is our first ever playoff win and we're not stopping here - we won't be happy until we lock in our spot to worlds. Thanks to all the fans and we'll be back next week for Round 2! #GGWIN
first step is done well. Proud of my teammates!! GGWP
Why does the best ADC (@VictorHuang) in NA only have 2k followers...?!
tweets a picture of a QSS
DL: Actually, one time we were playing against Golden Guardians, and it was 2-0 to GG. We were playing Ashe, they were playing Caitlyn and Bjergsen said: Guys, if we think we are good, let's prove it now, 2-0" Regi: "Did we come back?" DL: "of course not. 3-0"
Incredible performance from Golden Guardians who really stepped up across the board to get their first playoff series win in franchise history and SWEEP TSM! FBI was incredible, but Huhi & Hauntzer were the biggest difference makers for me in this one! GGWP!#LCS FLYA Big:
Can somebody tell me why Tsm never picked karma into morg and then chose to ban it
Zaboutine: wondering as well
I wish I can tell you, the match up is unplayable and u can even take cleanse
Phreak: Matchup is a big win, but Karma got super heavy nerfs. She's so bad Morgana still comes out winning the game even if the lane is tougher.
What makes her bad tho, I feel that cait usually wants to perma push and poke under tower and karma matches that perfect. Karma can also utilize cruicble way better than thresh/bard and her aoe shields still bring a lot to a team fight especially against ziggs
Inner Flame mana cost / CD are relevant factors. If you aren't able to spam enough to push back against Ashe/Morg push it's just bg.
GG GM Danan:
so damn proud of everyone. time for a well-deserved day off before getting back to the grind. GGWP @TSM
TSM had 2/3 really bad drafts, but it isn't solely why they lose. Today just seemed really really off and GGs played well above expectations. In game 2/3 game can be decided by 15min if TSM doesnt get leads.
Dardoch has a chance to knock out TSM for the year on Saturday. FRONT ROW SEATS still available. Don't miss out!
Tim Sevenhuysen (OraclesElixir Founder):
I wanted to see TSM handshake the bot lane and win through Broken Blade. Instead, they drafted BB onto Shen, Ornn, and Gangplank. All three are good at helping bot lane. TSM were never going to win through bot lane against FBI and huhi. Poor game planning by TSM, IMO. #LCS
DD: 10 Reasons that $CRSA Is the Most Underrated/Undervalued Upcoming SPAC Merger
EDIT: This SPAC merger has been terminated. I'm leaving the DD below as I'll be investing in F45 when they do go public. I have exited my position on this. I've obsessively been doing DD on F45 (merging into CRSA; warrants: CRSAW) since early July. I've spent at least 50-100 hours picking it apart from every angle, and I've been dollar cost averaging into the shares and warrants for several weeks. I have personally concluded that this is the most underrated/undervalued SPAC merger because people have been temporarily tricked by Covid / the market to not actually look into it. I've never done a post like this before, but I decided that since I've done the DD and no one else seemed to be, I guess I'm the one to distill it for people to consider the sizable opportunity. The company is a cash cow that is rapidly growing an imposing global brand with an innovative and scalable model of high intensity interval training studios that use a patented software system to deliver a new daily HIIT workout to every global location via digital monitors on the studio walls. I think that the vast majority of investors have skipped past looking below the surface based on the reasonable assumption that "gym + covid = bad". I encourage you to take a few minutes to look below the surface here and make sure you're not missing a significant opportunity. I believe it is. The amount of info I could type out is more extensive than most would care to read, so I figured I'd break the key points down into a list of my favorite things about F45 as an investment opportunity. Additionally, I highly encourage you to spend 5-10 minutes reading the investor presentation hosted on Crescent Acquisition's website here.pdf). They did an excellent job of presenting the product, business model, financials, etc. I've accumulated a lot more information than I could lay out here, so feel free to ask any questions and I'll get to all of them as soon as possible. Here are ten of the reasons that I believe CRSA is the most underrated/undervalued SPAC with an upcoming merger:
1. It’s growing 40-50%+ per year.
The charts below show F45's revenue and EBITDA growth over the past few years, as well as projections for this year and next (see point #2 as a caveat to the projections, because their franchise sales numbers this year have actually proven significantly better than forecast here, which should also have a positive effect on revenue). As a franchise company, F45 makes most of their money from selling franchises and collecting monthly franchise fees. New franchises pay an establishment fee of up to $50k and purchase $120k in proprietary equipment from F45. Once opened, the franchises pay a $2500/month franchise fee. (Note that the difference between "Franchises Sold" and "Total Studios Open" on the chart below seems to primarily be a matter of the lag between a franchise agreement being signed and the franchise actually opening for business, rather than failed franchises which is what I thought initially.) https://preview.redd.it/zq6wclz3ntk51.png?width=2150&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eb89ae1b10e54fece71cb988d20216cbd002821 The slide below is interesting as well. This isn't from the investor presentation, but rather a March '19 franchise sales presentation. The item that intrigues me the most is that F45 surpassed Crossfit as the largest gym network in Australia within just four years of launching their first location...this is explosive growth, and the United States has now overtaken Australia as their largest and fastest growing market. Their product is clearly resonating with people, even if you've never heard of it yourself (as I hadn't). https://preview.redd.it/k5mvpqijntk51.png?width=2546&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a9ba503522252b2b0dcc5390b46e543aae3d264
2. Covid has not been nearly the significant setback that was feared.
As mentioned in the first point, the 2020 projections above have actually proven to be significantly conservative, which should increase 2021's projections as well. As you can see in the chart in the first point, F45 was projecting new franchise sales this year of 174 due to Covid. In their August 6, 2020 8K filing, they provided a significant update to this, but they haven't updated the projections slide to reflect the latest bullish information. Their 8/6 update stated that they sold 244 franchises so far in 2020 through July, including 124 in June/July alone. If you extrapolate out the monthly new franchise sales below, you can infer that they'll likely end up selling over 400 franchises this year, assuming the recent sales success continues. https://preview.redd.it/bdw786b5ntk51.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=532cba1aea8dbf116e7a80493b3f59afb2ecdecf The 8/6 update further stated that 50 new studios opened from June through early August, and that 78% of the pre-covid franchise network was re-opened as of August 3, 2020 and that the median revenue per studios opened for seven weeks was back to 88% of pre-covid levels. Keep in mind that F45 makes their money from franchise fees, so the main factor is that studios are open and hopefully paying the full fee. Lastly on this point, CRSA is valuing F45 at less than half of their expected pre-covid IPO price. Robert Beyer, executive chairman of CRSA and founder of Crescent Capital Group ($28bn in AUM) had this to say on the conference call: "F45 has a steep growth trajectory, proven over seven years of opening more than 1,200 and selling nearly 2,000 franchises in more than 50 countries. The company has been profitable since inception, with extremely high cash flow margins, not only for the company but for its franchisees....This is simply one of the most exciting public market stories we’ve heard, with a valuation that is 30% to 50% below its peers and less than half the expected price of its previously planned IPO, which was interrupted by the worldwide lockdown only a few short months ago."
3. The business is successfully scaling globally (very quickly).
One of the most intriguing things to me about F45's growth and the investment opportunity is that F45 is proving that their model is scalable around the globe, something that most other fitness franchises have not achieved. The company's franchise sales team has grown from 6 to 34 members since 2019, with 18 in the Americas, three in Europe, three in the Middle East & Africa, and five in Asia, as well as five who cater to college, corporate, and military (F45s are rapidly popping up in college rec centers and soon on military bases). The chart below shows open and soon-to-open locations around the world. It's hard to tell on this map, but I believe it's 776 in the Americas (mainly USA), 124 in Europe, 8 in Africa, 200 in Asia, and 572 in Australia. (The company started in Australia and quickly penetrated that market. The fastest growth now is in the United States.) https://preview.redd.it/66dqonw6ntk51.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=1676d7873c6db4d0122b831ddac7793a2c254c9b
4. The celebrities who use, support, and invest in F45 make the brand sexy.
Mark Wahlberg is a key investor in F45 and will be on the board after the merger. Hugh Jackman trained for his role as Wolverine in the X-Men film series at F45. Other celebrities who use or have used F45 include Nicole Kidman, Channing Tatum, Nicole Ritchie, Sam Smith, Ricky Martin, Joel Madden, Russell Crowe, Teri Hatcher, and more. No offense at all to Planet Fitness and PF members, but I don't think a lot of celebrities are members there.
5. The franchisees pay for the company’s growth.
The company requires very little capital to fund their growth because the franchise establishment and equipment fees fund the buildout of each new F45 location and thus fund the company's growth. Warren Buffett has long preached that the best investments are companies that require very little capital to run their business. This is a prime example. In fact, the company doesn't really even need the capital from this merger. They've suggested how they may use it, and I'll get to that in a later point (it's bullish).
6. The company is easy to understand and follow.
You don't have to be a fitness nut or in the fitness industry to understand and follow this investment (I'm not a fitness nut or in the industry). Their business model is very simple. They make most of their money from franchise fees, as well as equipment packs. The main metric to watch is the number of franchises sold, as you can assume that each new franchise will add the following revenue: $50k establishment fee (there seems to be wiggle room with this depending on the deal), $120k equipment purchase, and $30k+ in annual recurring revenue from the monthly franchise fee. There's also a $25k franchise renewal fee after five years, and some other fees as well, including the anticipation of equipment pack refreshes. (Note on page 49 of theinvestor presentation.pdf) how this revenue is recognized...the establishment fee is amortized over ten years, so each franchise sold will add approximately $5k to revenue for the ten years after it's sold from the establishment fee, in addition to the monthly franchise fee.)
7. The company has some level of moat from patents.
F45 holds patents for the innovative technology it uses to power the studios and the global network: https://patents.justia.com/assignee/f45-training-pty-ltd. It is currently actively pursuing a case against an upstart in Australia that is using a model that is allegedly similar. I believe that F45 has tapped into a unique way to scale a HIIT training business into a global franchise model, and the success of that model is evident in the number of franchises being sold globally. It's great that they have a certain level of protection from others replicating this model. Assuming the patents prove defensible, it would be hard for competitors to replicate their success in their largest markets.
8. The product is so good that its members are often described as a cult.
If you search articles and social media, you'll often hear F45 described as a cult. Publicly traded companies with a cult following often do very well, such as Apple and Tesla.Here's the first paragraph of a 2020 GQ UK article about F45: "Whenever a friend of mine has suddenly walked back into my life looking better than they’ve ever looked before, the reason was always the same: F45. The cult exercise class, which can be found nearly anywhere in the world, just seems to work for people."
9. The potential for further growth is large enough that this is likely just in the first inning.
10. Corporate owned franchises will accelerate growth further.
I mentioned earlier in point five that F45 has suggested how they may use the company's merger cash, given that they don't need it for the current growth. They've suggested that they may acquire existing franchise locations or establish new company-owned locations. This is bullish because it will significantly accelerate their revenue growth. Instead of grossing ~$30k in franchise fee revenue each year per location, company-owned locations will likely contribute $275k-$500k in revenue per year. Planet Fitness has followed a similar strategy to this...they've turned to pursuing company-owned locations which has accelerated their revenue growth. ---------------------------------- Additional Notes:
The warrants (CRSAW) have an exercise price of $11.50 and the company can redeem them after the common shares (CRSA) have traded above $18 for 30+ days. The warrants were selling for $0.60-$0.65 last week. Warrants purchased at $0.60 would return over 900% if the common shares climb higher than $18 within five years of the merger. Based on F45's rapid growth, I believe that the probability of shares going from $10 to $18 in the next five years is high.
As of July 15, the net asset value per share of the common stock was $10.15. That means that if you're able to buy the shares for less than $10.15, your risk is extremely low because you could technically redeem your shares for $10.15 in cash around the merger closing. (However, hopefully the F45 story gets out there and it's no longer trading below the NAV by the merger closing.)
Investor relations said a week or two ago that they're awaiting SEC approval of the proxy statement and then they'll send it out with the shareholder vote date. They said that they now expect closing to be "late Q3 / early Q4".
Note that there is risk with the warrants, in part because if the merger were somehow derailed, they could lose some or all of their value. However, the compensation for that risk right now is that the return potential on them is massive (as outlined above). The main risk for the merger falling through seems to be the possibility that too many shareholders redeem their shares. In that case, Crescent has the option to add more cash to complete the merger. I personally believe that they would do that. They seem to fully believe in F45 as an investment, and they have a vested interest in the merger going through and then the shares doing well. They announced the merger in June, well into Covid, so this wasn't affected by the Covid surprise. F45's franchise sales have been solid despite Covid, as outlined earlier.
I want to reiterate that I have a long position in both CRSA and CRSAW. I hope to realize the maximum profit on the majority of my warrant position by selling or exercising if/when the common shares are trading above $18 (based on the company's ability to redeem the warrants once the shares trade above $18 for 20 days over a 30 day period). Like I mentioned, I'll try to answer any questions to the best of my ability as soon as possible in the comments below. None of this is investment advice, simply an outline of the due diligence that made me highly bullish on F45. Do your own research--there's great further reading in the documents on this page of Crescent's website. In particular, the investor presentation.pdf) I mentioned earlier does an excellent job of laying out the product, business model, financials, etc in an easily digestible way.
Continuing our pattern of smaller, more focused updates we are delighted to bring you the Romanian rework! Of course we haven’t been idle in other places; many other nations, notably Serbia, have received changes as well. In addition, we are very pleased to give you one of our greatest performance improvements to date as a result of our new division limit and our totally rewritten annexation decisions; details for both can be found below. We hope you enjoy this update! - The KR4 team Changes New Systems Division Limit: A new mechanic has been added to all nations; the division limit. It represents the total number of divisions that a country can safely support. The AI will simply not build past this limit. Players can build past this limit, but they will be notified when they’re over it (via a flashing alert on their Recruit & Deploy tab) and will receive a malus that increases the more they go over that limit.
Why do this? One of the biggest complaints about Kaiserreich is lag, particularly late game lag which can make playing into the 1940’s almost unbearable. Having a cap on the total number of units (particularly the number of units that smaller countries can field) is the biggest way we can help with this. We also apply it to the player for balance reasons: if the AI has division limits but a player doesn’t, the difference in difficulty (particularly for major nations) is profound.
What if I don’t like this anyhow? We’ve added a custom game rule option if you want to shut it off, either for the player only (meaning the player experiences no malus if they go over the limit, and is not informed when they’re over it, but the AI will still obey the limit) or entirely.
How is the limit calculated? At its base, the limit is the number of factories (after trade) multiplied by a factor established by your current Economy Law - with an upper cap also established by the Economy Law. Some countries with very high manpower but few factories (like China or India) or who own lots of states (like Russia) will have a lower-end cap on their limit that is higher than that provided by factories, but if they build enough factories they too can raise it higher. The limit never goes below 5 units, and some countries receive special bonuses (usually temporary) which add to that final total. If you hover over the limit field at the top right of your Recruit & Deploy tab, you’ll see a tooltip that explains exactly how the limit is calculated.
I like the limit, but I feel it’s unfair to country X! Kaiserreich has a lot of content, and while we’ve done testing it’s more than possible there are special situations we haven’t yet noticed, or old content (like units being spawned) which never took into account the possibility of a division limit and which haven’t yet been adjusted. If you come across such, please report it to us on our GitHub issue tracker and we’ll fix it as quickly as we can.
A bit of adjustment is required for this system, we know, but it really does affect game speeds as the game goes on, and we hope you’ll bear with us in the interim as the kinks are worked out.
Other Notable Additions
Annexation missions (the decisions you see which pop up after you gain territory, which allow for the release of puppets) have been reworked so they are now triggered. What does that mean? It means that there are no longer hundreds of decisions being evaluated every game day to see if those missions are valid (for many users, resulting in a slight pause at the end of each game day as the game evaluates all those triggers). Instead, the conditions are checked after any annexation or after territory is gained, and at no other time. This doesn’t totally rid of that daily pause, but it does lessen it significantly, though your mileage will vary as with all performance changes
Austria now joins the Reichspakt when they intervene in the 2WK, and leave it afterward
Japan can now only call its allies into its wars if it’s losing or at war with a major
Reworked/Expanded Focus Trees
Combined Syndicates of America
Combined Syndicates of America
Union of Britain
Combined Syndicates of America
New Custom Country Paths
Union of Britain
New Game Rules
Division Limits: limits can be disabled for players only or entirely
Peacetime Demobilization: the mission that requires countries to reduce their Economy and Mobilization laws during peace can be disabled, either for the player only or for all countries
Faction Diplomacy Buttons: several patches ago, the faction-related buttons on the diplomacy interface were removed, since all faction creation/joining is done via decisions and events in Kaiserreich. Some players, however, use the console to allow use of those buttons for their own purposes, so we’ve added a rule which allows the restoration of the buttons if the user so wishes. Restoring the buttons does not give them any more functionality than they had previously.
New Adrian helmet icon for infantry battalions for nations throughout the Mediterranean
New portraits for:
Burma: Myat Paya Lat, Aung San, Ba Maw, Ne Win, U Saw, Maung Gyi, U Nu, Smith Dun
Commune of France: Marcel Deat, Lucien Lacaze, Henri Tanguy, Vincent Auriol, Leon Jouhaux, Jacques Duclos, Emile Muselier
Denmark: Frederick IX, Frode Lund Hvalkof, Erik Leschly, Hjalmar Rechnitzer, Prince Aage, Hans Rolsted
Ireland: Cathal Brugha, Eamon De Valera, Eoin O’Duffy, Jim Larkin, JJ O'Connell, Liam Lynch, Tom Maguire, Peador O’Donnell, Tom Barry
Serbia: Draza Mihailovic, Ljubomir Davidovic, Milan Nedic, Nikola Uzunovic, Petar Vukcevic, Peter II, Petar Zivkovic, Milan Stojadinovic, Slobodan Jovanovic
USA and splinters: Douglas MacArthur, Richard Russell Jr., John C.H. Lee, Arthur Bristol, Samuel Murray Robinson, Lloyd Fredendall, Arleigh Burke, Alfred Price, David Worth Bagley, Frank Fletcher, Edwin Harding, Leslie McNair, John McCain Sr., Harvey Overesch, Walton Walker, William Hood Simpson, Evans Carlson, William Furlough
White Ruthenia: Kanstancin Jezavitau, Timokh Khvedashchenya, Frantisek Kusal, Hasan Kanapatski, Mikalaj Janicki, Paval Vent, Vital Kazlou
Others: Ephigênio Ferreira de Sales (AMA), Iven Mackay (AST). Joseph Jacquemotte (BEL), Jari Gomez (BRA), Euclides Zenóbio da Costa (BRA), Ivan Variklechkov (BUL), Aleksandar Stamboliyski (BUL), Prince Kyril (BUL), Tsar Boris (BUL), Thomas Cubitt (CAF), Eustace Fiennes (CAF), Clotario Blest Riffo (CHL), Jorge von Marees (CHL), Carlos Labarca (CHL), Antonio Ramos Caiado (GOY), King Alexander (GRE), Alexander Bustamente (JAM), Povilas Julius Labanauskas (LIT), Antanas Kaskelis (LIT), Ibrahim I Johor (MLY), Urzhin Garmaev (MON), Francisco Sequeria Moreno (NIC), Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar (PRF), Azam Jah (PRF), Mikhail Drozdovsky (RUS), James Craig (ULS), Saunders Lewis (WAL), Auguste Buisseret (WLL), Fernand Dehouse (WLL), François Bovesse (WLL), Zhu De (YUN)
Introducing additional equipment GFX variations such as colonial/tropic version used by Mittelafrika and German East Asia, or the now different motorized and mechanised equipment used by all 2ACW participants
Around 80 new terrain GFXs added for Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Russia
Changed the Main theme to Imnul Regal
For Algeria: Ahlen Bikoum
For Ethiopia: - Ere Ye Agerie Lidj, Eyquel, Fano, Gum Gum, Humming Song, Medinanna Zelesegna, Yeemebetatchen Selamta
For Kenya/Tanzania: Aichi na Wawee, Arabian Conga, Furaha Ya Kanu, Napenda, Tela, Nambanda, Tom Tom
For Libya: Saadaoudi
For Liberia: Domagbe
For Madagascar: Anio No Mba Hisoka, Mpanjakan'ny NY Lisy
For Morocco: Aytat Mulay Ibrahim, E Zzine Emlih Yamana, El Djinat el Kheil, Ghina Loziq, Moshh Zman, Ma Thama Zine, Ma Thama Zinek, Salamou Aleikom, Ya Fatma
For Ireland: The Auld Orange Flute and The Sash My Father Wore
For South Africa: Swaziland
For Somalia: Guelabiessi, Maolid
For Tunisia: Enna Nehou
For Zanzibar: Comic Sketch
For Romania: Aprinde o Tigara, Cararue, du ma Ia, Imnul Regal
For India: O Pardesi Musafir, Dunia Walay, and the Punjab Regimental March
For the Netherlands and Dutch East Indies: Mars van het Regiment van Heutsz
Mittelafrika will now play some African songs of its integrated colonies like Tanganyika!
Adjusted some scripted effects
Increased the province density in Nigeria, Tanganyika, South Africa and Angola
New states for Nigeria, Tanganyika, Angola, Central Asia and the Amazon
Gilgit state removed in northern India, Patiala state added in central India
Tweaks to East Prussia, Sichuan and Dairen
Justification and guaranteeing now requires at least 50% world tension
BUR country tag has been replaced with BRM, NAM country tag has been replaced with NMB
Removed the American puppet path for Honduras as it did not work
Austria can request puppet divisions after completing its status quo focuses
Added Austro-Hungarian news events
Jabal Shammar now gets a claim on the Trucial States if it wins against the Saudis.
Reduced some of Canada's starting factories and state slots
Loosened the requirements for the Treaty of Novosibirsk.
Russia starts with 4 research slots
Russia gets Ukrainian generals, admirals and the navy when annexing Ukraine in the Treaty of Pereyeslav
Converted most of the Polish foreign policy into decisions
Transamur can get their voting rights on the Legation Council restored
Added events to show what the decisions to prosecute the criminals actually mean
Colombia can now only choose Crusade Against Syndicalism if led by Pinilla (the decisions only worked for him anyway)
Shortened the time between the USA's trial focus and the trial events
Luxembourg can now be granted to an allied France or Germany
Other Italian states are now more likely to agree to peaceful annexation
Italian faction-joining and war declaration decisions are now instant
Italian AI will now wait 30 days after peace before joining a faction
Belgrade Pact members will now never refuse to join
Afghanistan will now lose claims on Indian territory after losing to Delhi
Removed events allowing France to event-annex Belgium mid-war
Acting against Black Monday is no longer costlier than doing nothing
Changed the layout of the Chinese faction alignment chart
Perez’s Venezuela can now join any faction the US is part of
Japan can no longer build a reactor in 1940
Transamur isn’t a Japanese puppet at game start anymore
Russia can now seize Greater Armenia when the Ottomans collapse
A socialist coup in the Netherlands will now disband the BeNeSam
The Carlists don’t sack the royal palace in the news event if they take Madrid
Added annexation missions for Estonia and Latvia
Qing can no longer join the Reichspakt
Brazil can choose to join the Entente in exchange for East Guyana
Egypt now releases puppets in former Ottoman lands if they chose to do so in the conference
If Fengtian rebels, Japan now installs Tang Shaoyi as leader of the Reorganized Government of the Republic of China instead of annexing China
The CSA can now join the Internationale if at war with an Entente PSA
Canada will no longer intervene in the ACW if the Deal with the Devil is active
Removed Swift Mobilisation focus for BUL
SocDem Brazil can now support the CSA in the ACW
Puppet Hannover has been renamed to the North German Federation
Serbia can no longer drag Russia into a war with Austria before the WK2
Fixed Canadian MarkLib government not being switched to SocLib when Mackenzie King dies
Reshuffled Irish generals roster, swapped some focus icons and removed Sean Murray, Betty Sinclair, Padraic O’Maille, Jonathan King, and numerous unused portraits
When Collins disbands parliament he won’t lead a radical christian party.
The child king of Ireland now has a more appropriate portrait for a man in his mid-30s
Irish elections and parties electable have been changed
Added some flavour events to the UoB and Ireland
Overhauled all British Isles annexations and partitions
Russian Britain is no longer possible, goodbye child king of Britain
Bulgaria reconciling with its Balkan neighbours now removes most of the negative opinion modifiers which were applied during the Balkan war
Greek surnames have now been split into male and female versions
Eroding an occupied Italian country’s legitimacy can now only be performed by an enemy Italian country or a non-Italian country which actually occupies one of its states
Reducing one’s Economy or Mobilization law in peacetime (via the decision) now refunds a portion of the PP which was spent to acquire the law.
Two Sicilies and Italy cannot call each other into a war against SRI until and unless they’ve lost ground to the SRI
The Greek AI will now hold off on deciding whether to go New Expansionism in its focus tree until after the referendum or after it’s become a non-democracy
France no longer annexes Flanders-Wallonia mid-war.
Greece’s ‘Fight for Macedonia’ is now a decision activated by the focus
Greece can no longer start the monarchy referendum until after the 1938 elections, at minimum
Revamped the annexation missions throughout Southern Europe
Added separate annexation missions for Scotland and Wales
Reworked the Serbian-Bulgarian union event chain so it is no longer a trap for Serbia. Serbian allies are now given the option of simply pulling out of the alliance or attacking (or to react at all), and Serbia is given a chance to back down. Attacking Bulgaria and retaking them after the end of the chain allows Serbia to establish cores via decision on Bulgarian core lands
Added alternate effects for RUS Okhrannoye Otdeleniye ideas so they are more useful to non-La Resistance owner
Siam finally gets its own balancing adjustment (read: "nerfed hard across the board")
Redone localisation for a majority of Mongolia’s early events
Zhang Xueliang’s demands to Japan will now be delivered immediately
Fixes Notable Fixes
Reformgruppe African puppets are now puppets of Germany, not Mittelafrika. This fixed a lot of issues in the area, especially around peace conferences/events. For other modders out there, we strongly suggest you avoid puppets of puppets at all costs
Long Yun couping the LKMT in Yunnan is no longer locked out of his focus tree
Mexico will now warn CEN before invading it, and the timer for them to invade has been increased from 14 days to 30 in order to give the Central Americans a bigger window to prepare
Fixed Jabal Shammar being locked out of its political tree
Can now actually release Chinese regional tags in annexation decisions
Ukrainian Generals are no longer in Socialist Russia
Fixed a double-firing event in National France
Fixed Mindaugas leading the Lithuanian revolt
Fixed a puppet Switzerland causing its overlord to peace out with France
Finland will now leave Mitteleuropa when appropriate
Japan now loses the Mantetsu idea if they lose control over Manchuria
Olson now gets a higher starting popularity to account for the new ideology
Syria is now only called Syria, not Syrian or Syriac on the map
Fixed Central America joining the Entente while at war with Canada
Fixed Southern Slovakia and Bucovina not being correctly transferred on release
Albania can no longer attack other countries if in faction with Austria
Fixed some missing Austrian localization
Fixed the JOR Disorganised Revolt ideas being added multiple times
Fixed the Russian release of Romania giving parts of Transylvania and blocking the mission
Ukraine cannot attack Romania in 1937
If all the member countries die, LEC returns to China
Reworded a Finnish event to account for Ukraine possibly being socialist
The West Indies will now have their socialist tree unlocked upon being released as a puppet
Fixed the inverted Sichuan-Tibet peace deal outcomes
Recoded general transfers in Central America
Fixed Iraq and Arabia being released as each other
Fixed Poland being able to occupy a dead Germany
Fixed the Mitteleuropa events having the wrong title and firing for the wrong countries
Panamanian Profit idea now removed if PAN is hostile or non-existent
German East Asia can no longer declare war on a dead Legation Cities
Removed La Plata mentions
Five Eyes Programme focus for the UK now works properly for non-LaR owners
Guy Hallifax has had his name fixed
Greater Germany no longer gets cores on Italian and Slovenian lands
Fixed a case of a CUB flag not being set and locking the focus tree
The Netherlands will no longer release Insulindia or go into exile twice
Fixed HOL becoming socialist and breaking the Insulindian Revolution (again)
Iceland now leaves Mitteleuropa when leaving Mitteleuropa
The event for the king being captured will no longer fire for a puppet or socialist Canada/Australia
Fixed the Irish volunteers not disbanding after the end of the ACW
Fixed the USA attacking Puerto Rico during the Ceasefire
You can no longer lease factories or lend guns to a non existent Nanjing Clique as German East Asia
Yunnan capitulates really fast now if it’s in its civil war to avoid spooky behaviour
Another country besides Uruguay can now win the World Cup
Fixed an ideology change in Lombardy’s monarchist tree
You can now play as Shan or Kachin without having to use the console! You have to start as Yunnan and make them rebel to play their limited content
Ireland’s doctrine bonuses have now been reassigned to the correct path
Irish election events have been altered
If the Germans and Entente fall to invasion, the Ottomans no longer have to pay their debts back to their governments in exile anyway just to be a good sport
Mexico can no longer invade CEN if it’s a puppet
Patagonia’s starting focus no longer sets you to War Economy, instead you’re given an idea to buff you instead
The Kingdom of Spain and CNT-FAI trees have been nerfed
The “Rally the Country” event should no longer fire for any country after the British king has been captured
Peace event for Bulgaria to win the Balkan war can now still fire even if Serbia is not capitulated last, and another Belgrade Pact country currently is leader
Fixed a rare instance where the war between Hungary and Austria could be invalidated, leading to an independent Hungary and no resolution to the Ausgleich event chain
Sweden can no longer drag the Reichspakt or the Third Internationale into wars with their faction-joining decisions
If the UK demands return of colonial lands from a puppet, that demand is now forwarded to the puppet’s overlord instead
The Greek rebel state is now auto-annexed by Greece if the war has been caused to somehow invalidate through outside interference
The LEP should no longer capitulate with Qing while together in a faction
We hope you enjoy playing Kaiserreich as much as we did making it! - The KR4 Team: Alpinia, Arvidus, Augenis, Blackfalcon501, DSFDarker, Carmain, Dr. Njitram, Drozdovite, Edouard Saladier, Éloïse, Eragaxshim, Fbruchmueller, Flamefang, Fort, Gideones, JazzyHugh, Jeankedezeehond, Jonjon428, Jonny BL, Krco, Liegnitz, Maltesefalcon, Matoro, NukeGaming, OperationsManagementDecisions, PPsyrius, Pietrus, Rei VL, Rylock, SPQR, Starguard, Telcontar101, The Alpha Dog, Thomahawk2k, Vidyaország, WordZero, Yard1, Zankoas and Zimbabwe Salt Co.
5 Guns I’ve made comments in the past asserting that the vast majority of all firearms activities can be done with just 5 different guns. I still stand by this. I believe that anyone, with a gun from each of these categories, can participate, in a meaningful way, in most gun-related things. Not necessarily at the highest level , and not every single discipline or subcategory. For example, having a Ruger 10/22 will gain you entry into a whole host of target shooting and competitive disciplines, but it won’t be good enough or even legal to shoot in Olympic smallbore- you’ll need something else. Your deer rifle with a Nikon Prostaff scope chambered in .270WIN might shoot tight groups at 200 yards and will allow you to compete, even well, in a PRS (long-range, high precision rifle competition) match, but you probably won’t beat the dude launching handloaded 6.5 Creedmoor pills out of their GA Precision rifle with a Nightforce scope (this rifle setup costs thousands of dollars and is capable of extreme accuracy at very long ranges). It also won’t be good enough to go hunt a coastal brown bear in Alaska- you’ll need something else for that. This isn’t to belittle inexpensive or general purpose gear. The opposite case is my thesis. The 3 main categories of firearms-related activities generally are: defensive use, recreational use (collecting, competition, non-competitive target shooting), and hunting. I separate hunting from recreational use, even though almost all hunting is considered to be recreational in some way, since the gear is more practical and use-driven (food security is no laughing matter), as opposed to “just for fun” or novelty for its own sake. If there is a flaw in my viewpoint, perhaps that would be it- lets discuss in the comments. I think the only aspect of recreational use that isn’t really addressed by owning 5 general purpose guns is collecting. Modern, common, and/or inexpensive firearms are not necessarily collectible (almost by definition) and their use is focused around practicality instead of design novelty, rarity, historical provenance, etc. But competitive shooting, and recreational shooting can be entered into in a meaningful way with 5 guns. This post means to show that while special purpose gear outclasses general purpose gear for those special purposes, for the average user, general purpose gear gets you so much performance and so much value, that you should focus on it over special gear, UNLESS A SPECIFIC and SPECIAL NEED arises from your experience that DICTATES A REQUIREMENT FOR SPECIAL GEAR. Most people do not shoot enough to warrant buying super niche items. Start with these 5, learn to shoot, learn and develop your own needs and interests, then branch off into technical la-la-land and transcend to full gun nerd. Let it also be known that you don’t have to buy all these guns at the same time or in any particular order. Just consider how you may use guns now, how you want or see yourself using guns in the future, and buy these guns as needed. This list is meant to illustrate simply that having the right guns for a given purpose isn’t hard or expensive, and that a small, simple, budget-minded collection of 5 guns can accomplish an enormous amount of activities in the world of guns. Bottom Line 5 guns: Semi-auto, striker-fired, polymer-framed 9mm pistol. HK VP9, Walther PPQ, Glock 19, Smith and Wesson M&P 2.0, Sig P320, Ruger SR9, or CZ P-10C are great places to start. Good quality, decently priced. Look for police trade-ins, used versions. These pistols can be had for under $600 new, as little as $350 used. Buy a concealed carry holster (ccw can help with this- body fitment is personal and unique), 3-5 extra magazines, and hit the range. Consider a weapon light down the road. 16” barrel, mid length gas system AR15 with an adjustable stock and preferably an M-Lock handguard. Buy the rifle from Midwest Industries, Aero Precision, Ruger, Bravo Company USA, Smith and Wesson, or Sons of Liberty Gun Works. Get a weapon light from Surefire, ModLite, Cloud Defensive (these 3 are expensive), Streamlight, or Inforce (both are vetted, affordable alternatives), then buy a quick-adjust 2-point sling from Ferro Concepts, Blue Force Gear, Haley Strategic, Magpul, Viking Tactics, Little Creek Trading, or others (they all range from $25-80 or so). Seriously consider spending $120-250 on a new red dot sight made by Vortex, Holosun, Burris, Sig, Primary Arms, or get a used red dot from Aimpoint or Trijicon ($300-500). It’s probably the single most drastic improvement you can make in performance value on a rifle. Buy 6-10 Magpul Pmags for practice and use. You should budget $600-1000 for the rifle, and roughly $500 total for all the essential accessories. 12ga shotgun- Mossberg 500/590, Benelli Nova/Super Nova, and Browning BPS are excellent. Remington has fallen off in quality since 2007, but their 870 pump is still quality enough to recommend, they just have cosmetic finish issues. Consider buying a Remington used. Semi-auto guns are also a good choice. Benelli and Berretta are the top of the heap, with FN and Browning as mid-tier, Stoeger, Mossberg, Winchester, and Remington rounding out the acceptable budget level. If possible, get a gun that comes with a short, 18.5-22” barrel AND a long, 26-30” barrel for maximum versatility. $300-600 for a new pump, $600-1400 for a semi-auto. Get a gun that has a 3" chamber and removable chokes in at least the long barrel. Get the same sling that you have on your rifle, Velcro cards from Vang Comp, Esstac, others, and consider a forend light from Surefire or Streamlight. A semi-auto 22 LR rifle. Ruger 10/22, Marlin Model 60, Thompson/Center TCR22. Bolt-actions like Savage and CZ are great, but leave a little to be desired as far as rapid-fire capability. If you have a bolt 22, keep it and don’t worry. If you’re buying new, go semiauto. For a “perfect” 22, look at the Liberty Training Rifle, a concept put out by the Appleseed Project, for ideas on a solid rifle great for training, hunting, and target shooting. Put a red dot or scope on it if you want, but iron sights are fine for this gun and a great way to practice fundamentals. A high power, bolt-action rifle with a variable-power, magnified optic. Savage, Ruger, Thompson/Center all make great guns for under $500 new. Tikka and Weatherby make maybe the best rifles for under $1000. Vortex, Athlon, Burris, SWFA, and others make relatively inexpensive, but feature-rich optics. A good rule of thumb is whatever you spend on a rifle, spend that amount on a scope, or as close to it as possible. Rifles are so good nowadays that even cheap rifles will outshoot most people, but scopes are not that way- the more you buy upfront, the more you save in the long run, both in money, maintenance, and usage. The Whys and Wherefores: Defensive use can be separated into self-defense (defense of your own bodily person, no matter the location or scenario), home and family defense (defense of a static place of residence/work and the people there), and community defense, one of the more important missions here. This is really the most specific category and is most heavily scrutinized by the legal system, for obvious reasons. You will find some of the most experienced shooters alive (and dead) focus on defensive shooting. There are really only a small number of situations where defensive shootings can ethically and legally happen, clear and present threats against your life and/or body at close distance being a reasonable summary of those situations. There are extremely few justifiable defensive shootings that happen at distances greater than 100m and there are even fewer that happen in situations where you are not reacting to a specific threat. Shotguns, intermediate size rifles, and pistols are what are most widely recommended for defensive use and versions are included in our 5 guns. Recreational use, for the purposes of my thesis, includes the most diverse set of disciplines, from the most casual backyard plinking, to extremely rigorous and intensive competitions like Olympic slow-fire pistol, to practical 2-gun action matches, and everything in between. Because of this diversity, these 5 guns will be the most deficient in this category, but, will allow any new shooter to, at minimum, start competitive shooting, in enough disciplines to begin to learn which ones you actually enjoy and pursue at a higher level. The fact is, many folks who like shooting skeet/trap/sporting clays with shotguns, often really have no interest in smallbore rifle competitions, and many of the folks who shoot long-range PRS matches may not enjoy shooting 3-gun. However, the 5 guns will let you do ANY of these, at least at the beginner level. Also, most folks who shoot, like to shoot for fun and like to shoot different stuff for fun. So while you may not like PRS, you still might want to hit the 600m KD range every once in a while and ring some steel with your bolt gun, just for fun, or to prepare for antelope season. That’s where the 5 guns shine- versatility. Hunting is separated from recreational shooting since it shares an aspect serious and practical enough to be more co-related with defensive use than “fun” and that is food security. Animals are still the best single-origin source of protein widely available. A vegan or vegetarian diet of mixed beans actually surpasses the nutritional quality of meat, but you have to pay attention to what you eat and make sure the protein sources you ingest form a complete profile of amino acids and other nutrients in order to functionally replace meat in a diet. This is not hard in our agriculture-based society, but its also not as easy as many folks think. I highly admire folks who do it right- we need more folks like that. However, hunting provides a very practical way to secure relatively cheap protein that is free of the many ethical and health problems associated with capitalistic, industrial food production (including all plant farming). Hunting with firearms also offers a view into practical outdoor weapon skills that are not otherwise replicated except in a warzone. If you learn to shoot a rifle in hunting, you’ve learned at least some of what is important in an outdoor defensive scenario, or even combat (Shooting a bolt-action rifle from prone off of a backpack at a target 400m away is something shared by hunters and military snipers). Again, disciplines vary wildly, as does the weapon selection. Shotguns and rifles are the main players though, and since we have at least one of each of those in our 5 guns, we’re mostly covered. I will try to include resources for more info and reinforcement where I can. Know that this is not exhaustive in scope, I am not a professional shooter or an expert in firearms engineering or usage. I shoot when I can, hunt a fair amount, and have done some junior-level competition shooting. Understand that almost everything you read on this post is a summary of what I have read and learned from actual experts and professionals and is not a synthesis of my own making. Most of the people and sources I will include are experts or professionals. Don’t focus on the fact that many of these people are chuds, conservatives, cops, or whatever. They shoot for a living and they are experts. Shooting as a skill has no morality or ideology. The lesson is more important than the teacher. Focus on what skills they are trying to convey instead of the shirts they wear, or their political viewpoints. The dangerous dearth of functional firearms knowledge in leftist communities necessitates sacrificing absolute purity for the sake of destroying ignorance, building both skill and a foundation of competence among our communities. The Pistol: Location independent self-defense with a firearm pigeon holes you into pistols, concealed or not. It just isn’t practical or in some places, legal, to carry a rifle, shotgun, or rocket launcher on your person for the purpose of fending off meth zombies or other threats. Pistols also can be adequate home defense weapons, as well as really fun guns that have a huge assortment of competitive disciplines available. In other words, they are versatile and fill 2/3 of our categories. So that’s why you should get a pistol. What kind of pistol? Why do I recommend such a specific design like a striker-fired, polymer-framed, semi-automatic 9mm? Because currently, that is the most modern, most versatile, and most feature-rich pistol design available. It’s also the most competitive as far as designs, features, and cost go from a manufacturer standpoint. Revolvers and older semiauto designs DO have some advantages. Revolvers can be shot from inside pockets, they can chamber a much wider variety of cartridges. 1911s have essentially the best-designed trigger of any large-production handgun available, they also have excellent ergonomics. These advantages are not enough to outclass the many advantages that modern handguns have- higher ammo capacity, lighter weight, better reliability, simpler manual of arms, ubiquity, market support. A Glock 19 is very, very easy to learn how to manipulate, even if the trigger sucks compared to a Wilson Combat 1911. Its also ¼ of the price. If you buy a Glock 19 or similar pistol and leave it bone stock, you can enter almost all the same competitions you could with a revolver or 1911, you have a lighter gun that is easier to carry and provides more capability at a similar price point. 9mm is practically universal, is one of the cheapest available cartridges to shoot, is essentially as effective in performance as other major defensive handgun cartridges, and is smaller, allowing for higher capacity and lower recoil. Some resources FBI switches back to 9mm. Garand Thumb on pistols, Primary & Secondary talks handguns. /CCW The AR: So if I can use a pistol for all defensive use, why an AR15 ? Aren’t those just redundancies at this point? Well yes, but actually no. The AR15 is effectively not concealable in any configuration that is useful as a long gun. So you can’t take it with you like a pistol. But, for a home defense weapon and as a community defensive weapon, it far outclasses pistols. So much so, that you’ll notice all militaries use rifles and not pistols as their main weapon (duh). Pistols are only used when you run out of ammo with a rifle and know you’re about to die being overrun, as a barely acceptable defensive stopgap to use in order to get to your rifle that isn’t currently with you, or if you can’t carry a rifle. If you expect to face rifle threats, or are able to bring a rifle legally and practically, bring a rifle. Its that simple. The terminal performance of rifles are excellent and at ranges that make them the most effective personal weapon ever devised in the history of humankind. We will not see rifles replaced in this role until phasers, blasters, gauss rifles, and rail guns become a real thing instead of science fiction. That’s why you need one. Why the AR15? Its combination of modularity, straight line design, lightweight cartridge, ubiquity, market support, price, and easy/simple manual of arms make it the best choice in the US for an all-purpose rifle. Why not AK, SKS? Good quality AKs and SKSs are no longer cheaper than good quality ARs, they are less adaptable to different roles, and have more complicated manual of arms. In other parts of the world, AKs still make a lot of sense, but with current import laws and supply in the US, ARs are now king. A 16” barrel AR with a midlength gas system is the sweet spot of performance and versatility- you get excellent velocity, reliability, a good degree of compactness, and light weight. This rifle can be used to great effect in any of our 3 categories- all manner of competitions, small to medium-sized game hunting, and defensive use. Close range to medium range, as well. It is highly versatile, perhaps the most versatile weapon you can possibly own, with the possible exception of a shotgun. There are many companies that make good ARs, I recommend a small number of those in a failed attempt at brevity. There is no need to spend $4000 on a rifle setup, and you also shouldn’t spend under $500. The point of diminishing returns is very real and since the whole idea of 5 guns is optimization, focus on that middle-tier. That’s where the bang for your buck is. A weapon light is absolutely essentially for defensive use, since you can’t shoot what you can’t see. Bad things usually happen at night, so a weapon-mounted light should be the first thing you buy for your AR. There are many companies, but few are highly regarded as good enough- the list I made is generally what is recommended by professional end users and instructors. Stick to it unless you get a specific recommendation otherwise from a trusted source, like an instructor. A quick-adjust 2-point sling is also essential. Its not only comfortable, but allows you to maintain control of your rifle while having one or both hands free. It makes it harder to drop, lose, or have your weapon taken away from you. Get one. One-point slings are faster, but retention is worse (getting whacked in your nether regions by a hot steel barrel is not fun, neither is hanging yourself on a fence with a rifle sling). Traditional 2-point shooting slings have good retention and are comfy, but are slow to shoot with. A quick-adjust 2-point is the best of both worlds. 2-point retention, almost 1-point speed. Get one. A red dot sight is preferable for a general use rifle over holographic sights, or magnified optics. A red dot gives you speed, low light use, is very easy to learn to shoot, and is much cheaper at similar levels of quality and reliability. With some training, you can effectively use a red dot to 300m or so. Holographic sights are faster, better for low light, and close range. But they are expensive and their battery life sucks. Low Power Variable Optics (like 1-4, 1-6x, etc) have begun to edge out red dots among professional end users in competitive, hunting, and military circles, but I recommend against them for one reason- cost vs quality. To get a good or excellent duty-grade red dot, you will spend $200-500. To get a good or excellent duty-grade LPVO, you will spend, minimum, $1000. A red dot will still allow you to do most of what an LPVO will do, for less than half the cost. A $250 red dot and $750 on ammo and range trips will beat a $1000 LPVO and no practice, every single time. Buy 6-10 Magpul Pmags to start off with. No, you don’t need that many mags for fighting off zombie hordes (maybe?). You DO need that many mags for efficient practice so you spend more time shooting instead of reloading the same 2 mags over and over again. Plus, mags break and fail and having replacements is essential. Pmags are the best because they are equally reliable as good metal mags, and they also fail in obvious ways (diagnostic advantage). If a Pmag breaks, it breaks visibly (feed lips break off, or the body cracks). When metal mags break, it may not be visible, since metal can deform to failure, but not visibly. That’s why Pmags are better. There is a reason why many professional end users set up their ARs in very similar ways to what I have explained- because it works. Check out the following: Travis Haley/GarandThumb, Larry Vickers, Milspec Mojo, Vigilance Elite, Ronin tactics The gauge: A 12ga shotgun is the most terminally effective personal weapon widely available. Sure, you can spend $8000 on a Barrett or other anti-materiel rifle and get better performance at all ranges, but why do that when you can spend $300 to get the same punch at 50 meters and in? Also, with proper ammo selection, you can hunt pretty much any animal in North America with a shotgun, from small squirrels, quails, and doves, to turkeys, ducks, geese, deer, even moose! Not to mention the countless competition disciplines that utilize shotguns. It has no equal as far as versatility is concerned. Its also pretty cheap to buy. Most good quality pumps are under $500 and will provide a lifetime of shooting. The trick with shotgunning is that to maximize the versatility, you kind of need 2 barrels. If you choose a short barrel for defensive use and large game hunting, you essentially eliminate utility for fast and flying game or classic clay pigeon competition. If you pick a long barrel, you eliminate the former. Never fear, most major manufacturers offer kits that include 2 barrels- a short 18-20” barrel for defense and certain types of hunting, and a long 26-28” barrel with removable chokes for the flying stuff. Switching barrels is easy and allows for maximized use. Its worth chasing down one of these “Field/Security” combos. There are important shotgun upgrades to consider, particularly a weapon light for defense, Velcro shotgun cards for ammo storage, a sling, and 2-3 choke tubes. Buy the sling first, preferably the same quick-adjust 2-point that your AR has, for ease of training, then get the shotgun cards. The cards are nice because they are modular and can be removed easily when you don’t need them or for fast topping up of on-gun ammo. Finally, get choke tubes. Your gun will likely come with one or a set in the box. A variety of chokes gives a range of utility that complements ammo choice for what you’re shooting. A “Full” choke makes for tight patterns for longer range shooting, while “Modified” and “Improved” are intermediate constrictions between full and “Open” or “Cylinder”. Modified and Improved are generally considered to be the most versatile. Shotgun weapon lights are more difficult to remove for when you’re not using it as your primary defensive weapon, so forego it if you have an AR with a light already. If you buy the shotgun first, get the light. You’ll notice I haven’t said anything about pistol grip-only shotguns. Why? They suck. For Almost everything- don’t listen to me, see for yourself- InRangeTV, also, an in depth look at shotguns for defensive use-Primary and Secondary The 22: The most popular firearms cartridge available worldwide. Its been around for close to 150 years, simply being one of the best things to happen to guns, ever. You should have one for a lot of reasons. Not really for defense- the 22 LR is not really effective in that role (usable, sure; effective, no). If you have these 5 guns, the 22 will not be your go-to weapon for defense. However, for target shooting, competition, training, and most small game hunting, there really isn’t a better weapon out there. The 22 LR simply rocks. Its super light, super easy to shoot, super cheap to shoot, you can shoot it at ranges where many other guns aren’t allowed, its legal almost everywhere, and its plain FUN. It’s a great gun for kids and new shooters to learn on since its not intimidating and provides all the essential aspects of firearms ownership and use. Get a semi-auto 22. Its better to train with, since you can learn positional shooting without breaking stance to work a manual repeating action and you have a speed advantage available when needed. Sure, some bolt-action 22s are more accurate, but again, unless you’re trying to get involved in precision-oriented smallbore shooting, the advantages of a semi-auto 22 outweigh bolt guns. Put a sling on it, buy a few extra magazines, and hit the range! From there, as you refine how you want to use your 22, consider upgrading your iron sights (Tech Sights, NoDak Spud sights), getting a red dot, or a magnified optic. Each of these enhances the rifle’s use potential in different areas. But mainly, shoot the thing! Rimfire Central is an excellent resource to learn about the ins and outs of all things 22 LR. High Power Rifle: the big boy. This is the apex of the main trunk of the firearms development tree. Full-size rifles are incredibly useful tools. Their capability at medium to long range eclipses every other personal weapon that isn’t ordnance or crew-served. They are an ideal choice for hunting medium and large game, make for excellent competition weapons, and can be pressed into defensive roles. Other than the pump shotgun, this is the only other manually-operated action weapon I recommend owning amongst the 5 guns. The reason for this is, like the shotgun, a function of cost vs. quality. Yes, excellent, desirable full-power rifles exist in semi-auto. Yes, they have more utility than their bolt-action counterparts. They are also A LOT more expensive. Bolt-action rifles are robust, mature designs that provide strength, reliability, a high degree of precision, for low cost and low weight. To get a semi-auto gun that is as accurate as a bolt gun, you’re gonna have to spend a lot more money. You can get a bolt gun that will be effective to 1000 yards or more, is as reliable and lighter weight, and costs less than even your AR15. These rifles are not expensive to buy, but they are certainly the most expensive to shoot regularly of our 5 guns, their ammo being fairly pricey. However, their utility in hunting and recreational shooting cannot be ignored. They provide a capability that can’t be filled by another platform, at least not without great expense and sacrifice in other areas. Buy one of those I recommend, or a different one recommended by a trusted, knowledgeable source, like an instructor. Get a magnified optic for it- something with a variable zoom objective that has a low end below 5x and an upper zoom around 10x. 3-9x is a pretty classic range, 2-10x is great, as is 3-12x or 4-14x. Objective lens sizes of around 40mm are perhaps the most versatile. Scopes with BDC type reticles, rangefinding reticles, and illumination provide tons of utility and should be focused on rather than simple crosshair reticles without illumination. Consider a sling for the rifle, as well as maybe a bipod. While not as necessary for bolt-action guns, try to select one that uses detachable magazines. They provide more utility and capability over those that use internal magazines. /longrange is an excellent place to ask a knowledgeable group of folks for advice on excellent starting setups. Other notes: With regard to stock furniture on practical weapons, go synthetic. Synthetic stocks are very robust, strong, and often cheaper than wood stocks. They are not nearly as aesthetically pleasing, but they are more functional. Wood can swell and warp in varying temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric pressure. Wood is also prone to cracking, breaking, dry rotting in some conditions, especially cheap wooden stocks. Synthetic stocks do not have these same problems. Also, it just feels worse to scar up a pretty walnut stock hauling a gun through a briar patch, whereas for a plastic gun, it doesn’t feel like abuse. If you do choose wood, consider laminated wood- it looks great, its super strong and has all or most of the advantages of synthetic. These 5 guns I have attempted to persuade new shooters to focus on are really dependent on another factor. Training. If you do not train and practice with these weapons, they will not be as effective, or as versatile as I postulate they can be. I say that an AR with a red dot can do most of the things that an AR with an LPVO can do. Its true, but only if you practice. Anyone can sling rapid fire strings into a silhouette target at 25 yards with either a red dot or an LPVO. NOT everyone can do it at 100m with a red dot and an LPVO. But if you practice, you can. Optics do not increase the range of a weapon, they only increase your ability to see your target. LPVOs create that advantage of target identification with magnification. But for someone that can see theiThe same goes for shotguns. If you don’t practice running a pump gun, you will create malfunctions and you will wonder “why did p8nt recommend this shitty gun that doesn’t work?”. Or, if you want to hunt birds, you will need to take it to the skeet range and learn to shoot flying targets. It is not hard, but it is a totally different mentality and approach than almost every other type of shooting. You must train and practice. Shooting, in all its forms, is a perishable skill. Hit the range. Other training videos: Importance of Dry Fire Bob Vogel on pistol grip Jerry Miculek on how to shoot a pistol What practice ammo? Pat McNamara on fundamentals playlist Practical Rifle Zeros EDITED for formatting, clarification of a few points.
“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”- Nazi Propagandists, Joseph Goebbels.
Axioms are our base assumptions about the world. They act as filters for new information coming into our consciousness. In classic philosophy, an axiom is a statement that is so evident or well-established, that it is accepted without controversy or question. As used in modern logic, an axiom is a premise or starting point for reasoning. We use these axiomatic assumptions to build our internal models of the world around us. They allow us to compare new information we receive from the outside with our internal narratives, which helps us to decide whether to reject or accept that new information. They are, for want of a better world, your "common sense" beliefs. So how do you go about changing a relatively normal person's core beliefs and base assumptions to the point of rejecting their fellow citizens as traitors, committing acts of murderous terrorist or vigilante violence like Fascist white supremacists running down protesters in acts of terror, ISIS beheadings or mass genocide?
Shock Treatment and Slow Repetition
When I was a child I was subjected to regular mental and physical abuse from my dad. I would also see my mother repeatedly beaten up and then flee to a women's refuge where I would stay with her. Each time my mom left, whenever I visited my dad at weekends, he would constantly try to pressure and manipulate me into convincing my mom to get back together with him. This never worked of course. But what it did do, is make me highly sensitive to manipulation techniques. I was fascinated by people like the magician Derren Brown and the economist Naomi Klein - who both reveal the tricks of the trade used in the advertising and marketing industries to convince people. One way of changing people into killing machines or obedient sheep is through a big shock to the system, like how electroshock therapy allows for a clean slate to rebuild peoples intern mental models. Psychedelics are another way, having a similar effect in the brain. Encouraged by the alt right and alt-light influencers like Jordan Peterson and Rebel Wisdom as they try to “Red Pill” people (an expression taken from the film The Matrix as a metaphor for revealing revealing the truth about the world). They use this shock and disorientation as a way to prepare a “blank-slate” in order to rebuild peoples internal axiomatic models with different core beliefs. Remaking people by shocking them into obedience and gas-lighting them about their existing internal models, making them seem irrational, silly or outdated. Reducing them to a mental state of a child and then rebuilding them with a new ideology and worldview, known as “shock therapy”. As Naomi Klein explains in The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, these techniques work on larger scales with use of trauma and shock to influence political outcomes has been used since at least Milton Friedman coined the term “Economic Shock Treatment”. He advised that politicians push through painful and unpopular policies all at once during a time of crisis, before people could regain their footing. The technique is used in economic markets on the large scale, and also against individuals on a small scale with individuals too. Economics and politics is just human interaction on a larger scale, after all. Regular repetition and gentle suggestions of ideas can also instil new axiomatic models and core beliefs into people's minds. As Derren Brown demonstrates how powerful subtly suggestions can be alone, without the need for hypnosis, shocks or drugs. But used in combination, shock and repetition can shift people until they have moved their positions, perceptions and beliefs about the world, to a place they could never have imagined. But luckily once you deconstruct the deception and understand how the trick works, the illusion falls apart.
Defining and Deconstructing Modern Fascism
Firstly, we must define Modern Fascism. Modern Fascism ticks every box of the traditional definitions in Umberto Eco’s essay Ur-Fascism, and not only does it fulfil every criteria, it reveals other motivational forces and has evolved to include new aspects, and has changed into something worse, while it’s main weakness remain the same - the fact that it is primarily motivated by weakness. As General Franco said in a 1938 interview with Henri Massis: "Fascism presents, wherever it manifests itself, characteristics which are varied to the extent that countries and national temperaments vary. It is essentially a defensive reaction of the organism, a manifestation of the desire to live, of the desire not to die, which at certain times seizes a whole people. So each people reacts in its own way, according to its conception of life… What can it have in common with Hitlerism, which was, above all, a reaction against the state of things created by the defeat, and by the abdication and the despair that followed it?" This quote perfectly illustrates the transient nature of the ideology, but also the core motivations of Fascism. It is an ideology based on the assumption of weakness which yearns for restoration of a past greatness or to get revenge and recognition. But the way that it manifests itself is different in each place it takes hold. Therefore the aim of this isn’t to make the case that any particular party or country has embraced out-right fascism (plenty of other people have made that case already), the aim is to reveal the underlying motivations, highlight threats and weaknesses and analyse the less obvious negative effects of Modern Fascism.
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes
A false equivalence that is often used is that Liberal Imperialism is just the same as Fascism. And while it is true that imperialists use fascist dictators to extract cheap labour and resources and also dominate smaller counties in a similar way to how fascist empires aspire to rule, the key difference is that the populations of those countries are not gripped by the same fear based delusions. And therefore more Liberal democracies are better equipped to hold their imperial position of power long term because they are better able to assess risks and react accordingly, rather than over-react based on paranoia and competing egos under excessive pressure. This false equivalence was also used in 1930’s Germany, because far-left Communists had been co opted and infiltrated by Fascists. They would repeat the mantra that “the Social Democrats were the real racists”. Contrary to the assumptions of most people, Fascism, as an ideology and political system of government is very distinct to white supremacy. It does of course include white supremecists, but In fact includes many other groups who have been co-opted by Fascist propaganda, or who implicitly support and enable their agenda. Examples of modern opposition which has been repeatedly infiltrated or just simply made up by Fascists include innumerable conspiracy theories, police groups like Blue Lives Matter, militant Black nationalists, the Boogaloo movement who call for a race war, the “Proud Boys” and even sometimes supposed Anarchists, far-left Communists and Left Accelerationists.
Motivations of Fascism
Fascism distilled down to its core reason for existing is the suppression of opposition who represent workers rights and economic justice. So they patently DON’T look after their own people. They con them into submission of the state by generating jingoistic fear of “the other” - whoever is convenient on that day to blame for their problems. Fascism is is an economic shock doctrine upon the inhabitants of the country. We don't spread fascist propaganda in tip-pot dictators because we care about the indiginous people there. We install Fascist dictators in order to remove workers rights and open up access to their natural resources. Artificial moral panics can be engineered and real disasters used to allow corrupt oligarchs and financial predators to consolidate power further by buying up small innovative businesses who don’t have the excess capital to survive the turmoil on their own without external support. Or as a way to eradicate public services by sabotaging them and building mistrust. They are used to erode faith in public services and institutions by rich people who simply want to pay less tax and don’t see why they should subsidise other human beings who haven’t had the same luck as them. So a major motivation of fascism is to suppress the opposition left-wing party who represent workers rights and egalitarian freedoms. Populists claim to be against free trade and to some extent they are, but whatever they do will fail because they are interfering with the markets, so they will retreat to the power of market domination. They use their threats of trade barriers as more just more shock treatment for markets, rather than protecting actual jobs or industries. This is a trick that has been played by Neoliberals too. But while Neoliberals use fascism as a tool for opening markets to Imperialism, they differ from Libertarians, not only because they embrace guns and weed, but they are starting from different positions to achieve the same goal; Neoliberals seek to remove already existing public services and workers rights that lift bargaining power. But Libertarians want to STOP the government from ever providing those services and investments into the poor or enshrining workers rights.
Modern Fascist Ideology has TWO Core Reasons to Exist; Fear and Freed.
I have been researching and analysing how economic systems differ, using a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads). For each economic system I tried to be as neutral, fair and balanced as possible - which included Fascism. I might seem strange that someone who is anti-Fascist would want to explore the strenghts and opportunities of Fascist ideologies, but in doing so it reveals the real weaknesses and threats which are too important for us to ignore. So what exactly IS Fascism? Is it just an economic doctrine or a personal philosophy about the world? The answer is both. The ideology has TWO core reasons to exist, and TWO distinct audiences types - with one based primarily on fear and the other greed, with each having a malignant and symbiotic relationship with each other. Fear - Authoritarian/Conservative Fascists Greed - Libertarian Fascists There are very few people who actually buy into full Fascist ideology, most believe a watered down version of which resembles Conservatism or right-wing populism or accelerationism, and most of them genuinely believe they aren’t fascist, even though they are being constantly fed subtle suggestions fascist ideology or that align with their plans. But the most ironic thing is that these groups are mostly being used by the second group of rich Libertarians globalist elites pulling a confidence trick on the host nation. Often posing “anti-establishment” conspiracists who actually uphold the establishment through misinformation. See: Russia Today and Youtube Bitcoin and Gold shills who subtly suggest fascist talking points. With those rich Libertarians at the top more than happy for those below them, who they deem less worthy, living in even more delusional ideologies with fake enemies to fear, often resembling traditional Christian but values wrapped in modern conspiracies with added elements of “satanic panic”. Modern Fascism has clearly inspired the modern day equivalents of Brownshirts and Blackshirts, self-styled vigilantes like QAnon, The Proud Boys and “The Boogaloo” - white nationalist violent extremists who want to accelerate towards a full-on race war. It has also infiltrated numerous alternative groups, such as hyper-evangelical “end times” cults, alternative health scenes, internet conspiracy scenes like flat earth and occult magic.
A commonly missing hallmark of fascism that is present in history during the rise of fascism is a controlled opposition and explicit suppression of opposition. This distorts a healthy society and has unforeseen consequences and blowback. Fantasies and political thought bubbles are self delusional custom realities resembling an episode of Black Mirror. They act as coping and escape mechanisms. Especially during the Covid 19 lock-down, these tendencies have gone into overdrive with massive events entering the real world featuring David Ike leading protesters alongside fascists as people ignore rising Fascism, climate change destruction and Covid deaths tolls. Using disasters like Covid or irrational scare tactics such as the "Satanic Panic" style Fascist propaganda from QAnon, can shock people using their fear and disgust response, while making them distrust the news - allowing the government to evade valid criticism from experts while suggesting to people that government public services are inherently evil or Communist. This type of propaganda is a Libertarians wet dream - making a population not only give up on tax funded public services, but actively fear them. An example is Trump trying to discredit and defund the US Postal Service and other public institutions and regulatory bodies. Anti Semitism has been used throughout history by those in power to provoke an “us vs. them” mentality, leading to today's establishment still sanctioning and allowing Qanon on major media platforms, provoking and agitating terrorist attackers from the far-left and the far-right. Those in power in fascist regimes allow and encourage mistrust in the mainstream media, while the long-tail niche political and interest groups keep people separated from each other, who each live in their own custom realities while the real elites continue to dominate and increase their power. With each bubble framing realities based of identity, race, class, nationality, or even subculture special interests like alternative medicine and “gamer bro” culture, so that when they interact in real life or online, they are speaking past each other because they don’t even agree on the basic principles of how they view society.
The Fatal Flaws of Living in a Fantasy
While the main flaws and weaknesses of Fascism remain the same, they are in-fact exacerbated by this new hybrid model. It’s main weakness is the very fact that it is motivated by weaknesses, fear and greed - rather than true strength, self-confidence or heroic benevolent power, as their adherents like to believe. A misconception of fascists themselves that it is based on strength, when it is actually based on weakness - even when the driving force is greed rather than fear. Libertarian fascists want to extract labour and materials at cheaper prices, while inflating their own asset values. In other words; international financiers with little allegiance to any country. Ironically the very type of people who Conservative fascists claim to be opposed to. Fascism claims to make society more successful, but it actually accelerates the destruction of the culture, country or people, rather than preserving and conserving it, because it betrays a fundamental weakness of insecurity. Competitors and rivals can easily see through the charade of and take advantage. If anything does the exact opposite. Russian and China are clearly goading Western nations into becoming more divided and totalitarian, as they themselves benefit from becoming more Liberal and open and reap the competitive advantages that brings. See Kraut’s excellent video about Trump on China as an example. Keynesian investment in the country and people, giving workers more rights, opportunities and a more bargaining power is what makes a country successful and innovative, rather than the faux Keynesian policy of giving kickbacks to corrupt officials for government contracts and widening inequality by supporting the already rich, rather than the ordinary people.
Who Benefits in This Memetic War?
Who is going to war with who? Who is winning? A modern adage is that tankies are just fascists because of their support of authoritarian proto-fascist leaders and regimes who often claim to be Communist. But from my experience talking to actual fascists, they crave a more multi-polar world where other strong leaders rise up as competition and form alliances with dictators. So to me, it looks like Fascists are the real Tankies; wishing our enemies be stronger and wanting to accelerate towards race war or civil war that weakens the society. Not only did Donald Trump have knowledge of Russia allowing ISIS bounties on US troops and withhold that from the public while courting Putin, I have personally heard white supremacists backing extremists Islamists in Discord servers. Trump jumped to the defense of the people who put a 17 year old with a gun against civil rights protesters and assumed the intent before saying that the outcome should be decided by the legal system. They share common values and beliefs like Anti Semitism, accelerationist end-times fantasies, patriarchal traditional values and a fear of outside progressive cultures. In fact modern extremists white supremecist groups share recruitment and terrorist strategies and tactics with militant islamists. You could argue that it was inflicted by Russian or Imperialist propagandists onto the German people in order to take control of larger areas of Europe after the destabilisation of war. Hitler and Stalin came to a non agression truce called The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, which as was a secret non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those two powers to partition Poland between them. The pact, signed in Moscow on 23 August 1939 by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov was officially known as the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. They divided Poland under the banner of fighting “Polish Fascism” nearly a century ago with both sides ultimately lying to their own people about spreading freedom while being authoritarian to their core and being able to blame “the other” as being the cause of all their problems. But these days fascism seems to be a rogue meme that no longer serves any particular group. It is pathologically damaging to any society that it happens to grip. Even the aforementioned Libertarians and accelerationists who think they are benefiting are only temporarily gaining by market price volatility. They ultimately lose through the blowback effect of the whirlpool they create.
Psychopathy, Alienation Nihilism and Insecurity
It is well established that Fascist dictators are driven by psychopathic characters and tendencies. They either don’t care about the truth, or disregard it if it’s not convenient to their narrative. In totalitarian despotic societies facts are reversed. As George Orwell proclaimed throughout his writings; “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”. Similar to how authoritarian Starlinist Communists harnessed people’s alienation and tricked them into thinking that it’s possible for the state to fully decommodify everything without having markets, money to account for things, domination or hierarchy or try to convince people that a revolution is just around the corner. But of course, a council representative is still the head of an organisation, for all intents and purposes, because they wield executive power over others, even if the name has changed. Markets are emergent properties when groups of humans want or need a certain commodity when it becomes available. But while both Communist and Fascist ideologies are based on lies that harness peoples alienation, fear and envy, Fascism is also especially to the weak. It is attractive to those who want to be strong again (or were never to begin with), or those who want to have a strong leader to help them. Fascism betrays to others the inherent weakness. Like the insecure kid in school who lashes out - others around can see that it is because of their own insecurity which makes them appear even weaker. Fascism is a psychopathy driven by insecurity. When people become so absorbed in an ideology there is a phenomena of people to self identify as an actual ideology? This produces a phenomena called Identity Protective Cognition, where people's self worth becomes attached to a belief system or ideology. So that when new information contradicts their worldview it is seen as an attack on the person themselves. Therefore irrational, emotional quick fix thinking is the default when there is too much pressure and they feel attacked. They no longer use their slow effortful reflective thinking. (See Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow) This approach has parallels in evolutionary biology, in which a central issue is the ability to adapt to changing environments. Competency - over-competitiveness in management causes chaos which STOPS hierarchies of competence. (Insert video clips of Sapolsky on Chaos vs Reductionism etc. timestamps linked). Fascists try to reduce variability in culture and outcomes - causes weakness of less adaptability - because as Sapolsky explains, the variability is not just noise in that type of system CAS (Complex Adaptive Systems) - the variability IS the system. It is fractal and scale free. The noise and variability is an intrinsic part of the system. But the system doesn’t function properly when the agreed-upon parameters that individuals believe to be true aren’t universal enough to have any form of group coherence. Birds and swarms of animals can produce amazing complex phenomena, which are greater than the sum of their individual parts. There is a “network effect” once a certain threshold and certain conditions and rules are met. These rules can be very simple, like repulsion or attraction, or staying a certain distance apart while traveling in a similar direction, but collectively they create patterns that emerge with complexity and I dear say, a certain amount of beauty. So what happens when millions of people are being brainwashed and misled by cults that are leaving them with a reduced ability to make decisions? Giving them shit-for-brains just so that some rich people at the top can pay a few percentage less tax? That is the sign of a deeply sick system that cannot continue to function effectively. It is sick on so many levels.
Emergence, Complexity and Human Evolution - A Social-Biological Analysis
The problem with viewing the world through only one lens of analysis (or bucket of knowledge) is that you can fall into unnecessarily reductive thinking. (Sapolsky clips) I describe myself as a philosophical anarchist. Which does NOT mean I want total chaos and disorder - it means I want the optimal solution to emerge - including the influences and experiences from the bottom-up. I also think that a bottom-up (or anarchist) lens of analysis is necessary for society to run cohesively in an optimal state. If it is repressed it distorts the overall picture of reality for everyone - similar to a CEO that doesn’t listen to employees and workers on the ground. I interpret as constantly holding authority to account - to justify its existence and reason for dominating others. I also believe it is every citizen's responsibility to hold authority to account. This would be necessary under ANY economic system or society. Anarchists also believe in stigmenric, rhizomatic action to make the world better, organically, not from a top-down authority, which fascism seeks to instill on society. Human beings are collectively parts of a bigger chaotic but stable system known as a CAS (Complex Adaptive System). CAS’s are chaotic systems that can reach periodic steady states of equilibrium. As Professor Sapolsky explains, humans uniquely exist with a mixture of both communal and individualistic tendencies; known in the scientific world as Tournament vs. pair bonding. All the evidence suggests that this tendency has greatly improved our success as a species. But those tendencies distorted too far one way or another lead to pathologies and the worst collective misdeeds and wars. Because as Professor Sapolsky also explains in his brilliant lecture series (which I have condensed the pertinent parts of into a 4 part YouTube video) about CAS; the signals coming from the randomness is being suppressed or repressed, it interferes with the functioning of the system. Pressure in the system makes the patterns more complex but at a certain point of increasing pressure in the complex system, it stops being linear and the doubling of patterns and periodicity totally stops. Order completely begins to break down because of the butterfly effect. Fascist regimes fettishise order and rigidity but in a complex adaptive system, the noise IS the phenomena, not a byproduct to be discarded, ignored or repressed. The majority of people on the right genuinely want to help society by bringing order, using top-down draconian measures if necessary. Whereas the left generally wants to help society by proactively building from the bottom up. I think both of these approaches are necessary to be balanced properly for a healthy functioning society to emerge. It seems our tendency to harness both traits and to focus intently on one or the other is our greatest collective strength, while also being our greatest weakness. And similarly, on an individual level I believe our greatest strengths and weakness are the fact that our brains work efficiently by categorising information to filter out the unimportant bits that slow us down. As the book by Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow, brilliantly explains, slow deliberate, consideration thinking takes energy and time, so our brains developed filters which come out as biases. This is an inherent weakness of the human brain. Now imagine the butterfly effect on the life of just one person who is influenced by the brainworms of QAnon cults or conspiracies which distorts their internal models of the world which they use to filter information about the world The sad and shocking stories on forums like QanonCasualties show the devastating effects on their close friends, family and work life - amplified by their ever increasingly disconnected lives. (insert Flat earther clip - zoom in on idiot rolling head) Now scale that up to the level of a whole of a society, a country, or the world? This is a collective madness to cope with and avoid the reality facing us as a species. Only collective action with agreed basic facts to work from will do to avoid the total descent into actual chaos and destruction.
TLDR; Conclusion and Final Thoughts
In this essay I will have put forward the case for the following four key arguments being true and I have present supporting evidence to explain the logical reasoning for why our current definitions need updating and the threat levels reassed, from a non-hysterical but critical perspective. The overall claims I made are:
Modern Fascism has taken over right-wing populism and bears all the hallmarks of early 20th Century Fascist ideologies.
The ideology has two main reasons to exist, and two distinct audiences which both have a symbiotic, pathological relationship with each other.
The main flaws and weaknesses of fascist ideology remain the same as ever - that fascism is motivated by irrational fears, greed and self deception.
Modern Fascism has major unforeseen damaging consequences for individuals, governments, organisational dynamics, and society at large.
This reality is something I think a lot of fascists, ultra-nationalists and people who have been influenced by the propaganda know deep down on some level already - that they are avoiding the realities of pandemics and ecological harms of ignoring science and reality as it is. They ignore it because fantasies are simpler to understand. And a narrative based on fear of the other is a simpler way to to process a complex world. It is also attractive to the part of us that is drawn to conflict and drama - that hunger for something genuinely interesting to happen. But I would argue from my experience that the beautiful complexity of life in all it’s shades of grey is much more interesting, fun and genuinely fulfilling to understand and engage in, even if it might be harder to deal with and even harder to explain. I believe doing so is also vital for the very survival of our species - we can no longer afford to live in a fantasy, we need to collectively take responsibility for the world as it exists in reality. Thank you to my two Patrons: Carmen Jongepier E.V. Roske Original Script on Patreon
2005 saw Dave Rubin's blog, "Rubinville", really take off. Dave continues fat shaming people; both famous (Kirstie Alley, Star Jones, Andy Milonakis, Anna Nichole Smith) and non-famous. (It's funny because Dave recently tweeted out to Kirstie Alley for her to do his show.) Dave voted for Republican Michael Bloomberg in the 2005 NYC Mayoral race. Some of Dave's favorite shows include The View, Tony Danza, and any program on CNN or Fox News. Dave wishes death to Jeff Zucker for not picking up a failed sketch show of his and continues to believe that Tom Hanks stole his material and used it on The Tonight Show. (Dave previously mentioned this in his blog; 2003/4.) Dave mocks Adam Carolla and Mike Rowe; he is now friendly with both. In the beginning of 2005, Dave promises to no longer stalk Ellen but he goes back on that promise. Except this time, Dave shares his daily e-mails to Ellen. Lastly, Dave continues to use slurs against Asian people, Arabic people, little people, and well, anyone he doesn't like. 2005 Rubinville 01/09/2005 Palestian elections are today and most people are expecting Abu Mazen to win by a solid margin. If any Palestians are reading this and haven't voted yet, please use your vote to write-in Arab-American actor Tony Shaloub. People think to think his show 'Monk' is funny, but it actually sucks and I think he'll be out of work soon enough. I still can't get over that dump I took. I think I lost a vital organ. 01/18/2005 It's absolutely freezing outside. I recommend boxers briefs with a pair of regualr boxers above them to keep your balls nice and toasty. Everyone loves toasty balls. Watched the Golden Globes...I'd just like to say that Star Jones had a lump of fat coming out of her dress in the armpit area. So very disturbing…I've officially stopped writing Ellen Degeneres e-mails because she refuses to respond. That's it Ellen, no more compliments about your dancing either. 01/20/2005 I wonder wish of the Bush twins gives better head. 01/23/2005 Leno has just totally wrecked that show and no self-respecting comic can stand the guy. Though, as I have joked before, I probably shouldn't write that. The stuff that we have been doing at the Comedy Company lately is the type of stand up that Johnny would've loved, I'm sure. So Dave Letterman, if you find yourself a lil nostalgic, and looking for new comics like how Johnny once found you, I'm only about 3 blocks away. 02/10/2005 In other news, turns out that Hakeem Olajuwon gave money to a Islamic charity than ended up funding Hamas and other terrorist organizations. Hewlett Packard fired their CEO yesterday, further shrinkening the amount of female CEO's at major companies. Does this have anything to do with why my HP printer acts like a bitch whenever I try to print a color document? That was so weak, I apologize to you and your family. 02/14/2005 I then took the money I made and donated it to a Muslim charity which I later found out was just a front for Hamas. Oh wait, that was Hakeeem Olajuwon. 02/16/2005 Ashley Olsen is suing the National Enquirer for 40 million dollars for spreaidn what she calls false lies about her being involved in a drug scandal. I don't know if that's true or not but I banged her last night while she did cocaine off her sister's asscrack...Can someone please explain to me the logic behind Kirstie Alley being the spokeswoman for the new Jenny Craig ads? She's fat. Am I missing something here? Have they just given up altogether? 02/23/2005 Now, I wasn't there so I don't know what was said before the melee, but lemme say that fat people are usually hungry, and contrary to popular belief, not as jolly as they would have you believe. So, if one cuts you in line at a pizza place, just let them do it. Most likely they will die of a heart condition relatively soon, and they need to max out their eating time here on Earth. 03/06/2005 Dan Rather is about to officially sign off from the CBS news desk. In an interview Donald Trump says he would have told Rather "You're fired" a long time ago. Fortunately, for Rather he isn't a contestant on a tired reality show, he's just the host of a made-up news show. Syrian President Bashar Assad says his country will move it's troops mostly out of Lebannon. Assad who, after the announcement, went to one of his many palaces and made his many female servents fondle him. Sammy Sosa got ejected in his second pre-season game….and watched the game from the clubhouse where some of his many female servants fondled him. 03/23/2005. Richard Simmons was on the Tony Danza Show this morning. I've never seen one man (Danza) so afraid of a woman (Simmons) before. The feeding tube is still out of Terry Shiavo. Call me crazy but I think that if a person is in a constant vegetative state and is being kept alive artificially by machines and her husband has nothign to gain by her death, except peace of mind, then, well, we should let her die. 04/11/2005 A special shout out to the asian girl up front who wouldn't even let me get a joke out before she told me that she loves oragami and calculus. Maury Povich is on ESPN's Cold Pizza right now. He's wearing so much makeup that he is starting to look like Connie Chung. Doesn't Connie Chung sounds like a type of infectious disease? "Dude, that's a pretty bad cough you got there" "Yea, I've got a bad case of Connie Chung." 04/15/2005 Just saw a commercial for "8 Simple Rules" on ABC. It said there is a secret so shocking that "it will upset even special guest Nicole Ritchie!" (Insert coked-up whore joke here) 04/27/2005 As some of you may know every other day or so I send Ellen Degeneres an e-mail with no specific point. Sometimes I just update her on things I'm doing, sometimes I ask a random question, sometimes I rant about politics. I've been doing this for about a year and have yet to get even one response back. So today it hit me, maybe Ellen isn't even getting my e-mails and they are being filtered out by some assistant or intern. So starting today, whenever I send Ellen an e-mail I'm also going to post a copy of it here in the Daily Dave. Here's what I sent today... Ellen, I'm starting to think by your lack of responses to my emails that someone else is reading your emails. Who is this person? What qualifies them to read things in your name? How do they decide what gets passed onto you? I realize that this person is reading this right now and thus probably won't pass it along, but I just want to say to that person that Ellen would really like to read this email and if you stop her from doing so, you are really stopping freedom of speech, which is the most American thing out there, and Ellen is pro-America, is she not?? Now I suppose we wait and see. The ball is in your court Ellen.. 04/29/2005 Anyways, the point of this continues the string of good interactions I've had with some of the big names of comedy, like Seinfeld, Cosby and now Crystal. I've also had a couple good talks with Gilbert Gottfried, just not sure if he falls into the "big names" category. Here's my e-mail to Ellen for today... Hey Ellen, Something came up and I was wondering if I could borrow 2000 dollars. Thanks. 05/02/2005 Here's today's email that just sent Ellen Degeneres... Ellen, Do you think that drinking Orange Juice with extra vitamins in it, like Tropicana's Immunity Defense Orange Juice is really worth it? Thanks. 05/04/2005 NBC announced 6 reality shows for this coming summer. They are, in no particular order... The Biggest Loser - See a fat loser become a slightly less fat loser. I Want to Be a Hilton - Paris' mother is the host, and I assume she sucks off the contestants. Here's my e-mail of the day to Ellen...Ellen, I see you had Betty White on the show today. I didn't see it but I was wondering if you asked her if she moved back to St. Olaf or stayed in Miami after the Golden Girls ended. 05/06/2005 Here's my letter to Ellen for today...Ellen, I scored 22 points last night and my team is now 4-0 in our basketball league. That's not a question, just thought you'd like to know. New York City is expected to have a 3.2 billion dollar surplus this year. Clearly, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg shouldn't be a politician. He's fixed the budget, crime is down, the city is cleaner, and quality of life is rising. As a comic this really pisses me off. There's nothing funny when things are going well. Damn you Bloomberg! 05/10/2005 We'll start with the Ellen letter of the day... Ellen, I've noticed you're big on making people's dreams come true. Well, last night I had a dream that I was swimming in chocolate and started drowning until Batman arrived and saved me. Can you make that happen for me in real life? 05/13/2005Ellen letter of the day… Ellen, You showing your prom picture just reminded me of my prom. At mine, I was about to have sex for the first time but then the OJ Simpson car chase happened and it blew the whole thing. Sucks, right? Macaulay Culkin has testified that Michael Jackson didn't molest him. You know you're a child molester when they have to bring in one kid just to say he DIDN'T get molested. Actually, rumor has it that Michael tried to molest Macaulay on many occasions but Macaulay always had an elaborate series of traps set-up and Michael would get a bowling ball dropped on his head or slip on a bunch of marbles. 05/16/2005 I accidently just flushed a copy of the Koran down the toilet this morning. Keep that quiet or there might be riots in Patterson, New Jersey. 05/19/2005 However, I will do an impression of Yoday having sex..."Going to come, I am!" 06/14/2005 Kirstie Alley claims to have lost 35 pounds on Jenny Craig according to the commercial I just saw. In my opinion she looks fatter than ever, which makes me think they fattened her up about 70 pounds, then had her drop 35 pounds. Michael Jackson is not guilty on all charges. He celebrated the verdict by getting drunk at the Santa Monica pre-school. That's really all I can offer up on MJ at the moment. It's sad that money buys justice in this country, but it is what it is. 07/06/2005 I'm currently pitching a show to NBC where regular people get to hunt down NBC executives and murder them in cold blood. The first person to get Jeff Zucker gets a million bucks. Time Warner cable here in NYC is now Carrying AZN Television, "The Network for Asian Americans". This is a real problem going on in America right now, that everyone thinks they need their own channel. The asain channel, the woman channel, the gay channel, the black channel. What's next, a comedy channel? 07/07/2005 Terror is really an amazing tool. It makes nations choose their destiny instead of avoiding it. When America was attacked, we chose to go on the offensive. When Spain was attacked, they chose to retreat. Now England will have their choice, and we'll see what they do. I have a feeling they'll go on the offensive, but Europe is a strange place, and there are many people who think that if you appease the bad guys that they will stop hating you as much. A month from now Israel is going to pull out of the Gaza Strip. I can't help but think that the same guys who attacked us on 9/11, and the same guys who hit London today, are the same guys who will be thrilled that Israel is leaving because of an unrelenting campaign of terror. I'm not saying that staying just because they will feel rewarded if you leave is enough to stay, but I am wondering if leaving emboldens them to fight even more. 07/15/2005 Hillary thinks that the simulated sex in Grand Theft Auto is pretty much the beginning of the end of human civilization. Of course, co-moralist Joe Lieberman is joining Hillary on this crusade to save humanity as we know it. Somehow I doubt the two of them have ever played the game, or any other game for that matter, but as politicians they obviously feel qualified to tell us why they think we're all messed up. 07/17/2005 If any of that made sense to you then I highly recommend The Andy Milonakis Show on MTV. I have literally no idea what the show is about, but it is based around an overgrown, mildly-obese, childlike moron who does various nonsensical stunts. As I watched in utter horror my roomate turned to me and said... 07/18/2005Joy Behar - Doesn't take shit from Star Jones. Robot Chicken - I had this idea about 10 years ago, but Seth Green did it first. Good job. Kira Phillips - That smile makes suicide bombings look sorta cute. 07/21/2005 Caught a few minutes of Tucker Carlson's new MSNBC show last night. I've discussed what a bow-tie wearing dork he is before, but now let me also throw in that even without the bow-tie he is still a big dork. 07/27/2005 I watched a new show on the Discovery Channel last night called, "Dirty Jobs with Mike Rowe". The show follows Mike as he goes from various jobs that nobody would want to other jobs that nobody would want. In just this one episode, he plucked golf balls from alligator infested waters, he was a garbage man and he jacked off a horse. Yes, that's right. People are doing this. For a living. 08/01/2005 The ladies of The View are talking about poor Paris Hilton and Nicole Ritchie, who claim not to like each other, yet will do another season of "Simple Life". Hmm, call me a cynic but maybe they are just making up the whole fued just for the free publicity? C'mon Starr Jones, call it like it is! Say allegedly if you have to! File a leagal brief! Eat a piece of cake! Just do something! 08/06/2005 And back to the funny...This week marks the 60th anniversary of the USA dropping the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima. To commemorate the occasion, Iran announced it will continue it's nuclear program and bomb someone "as soon as humanely possible." 08/10/2005 Terrell Owens left Eagles training camp today. WAAAAA! I only make 12 million dollars a year to play football! WAAAAA! I want more money! WAAAAAA! I want more respect! WAAAAA! 08/12/2005 Speaking of Sportscenter, Mario Lopez, better known as AC Slater, is new doing a new segment on Sportscenter called ESPN Hollywood. He is so smiley its ridiculous. Mario, we all know you want to kill people, from Zach Morris to Stuart Scott. Let it go bud, you don't have to smile the whole time. It's offensive. 08/15/2005 Jimmy Kimmel, who hosted the show, is amazingly unfunnny, and will be cancelled any day now. Sara Silverman has no real talent and will continue to suck Jimmy Kimmel's cock for as long as he has a TV show. Adam Corrola also sucked Jimmy Kimmel's dick to further his career. And it was no easy feat because if his giant teeth. Israel is pulling out of Gaza today. Why is it that Jews can't live in a place that is run by Arabs, but Arabs can live in Israel, France, Britian, America and every other country on the planet? Oh yea, the Arabs are backwards, fundamentalist wacko's. I keep forgetting that. 08/26/2005 My first hour on Craigslist yesterday was accidentely searching for jobs in San Franscisco. Considering I hate commuting to the East Side, San Fran would really be pushing it. Kathy Griffin has a new show on Bravo called, "My Life on the D-List". I'm pretty sure once you have a show you are off the D-List. She's probably C-List now. I'm D-List. Oh, who am I kidding, I'm G-List, but I aspire to be D-List. Man, D-List, that'd be so sweet. Okay, gotta go, I've got a lot of work to do. D-List here we come. 09/06/2005 Anyone else think that Bush had Rehnquist killed to get some of the the heat off him for the slow support time in the Gulf Coast? Timing is everything. 09/17/2005 It was with great joy and happiness that when i woke up this morning that I came across "GI Joe: Sigma 6" on Fox 5. I saw the title of the show as it was on a commercial and I anxiously awaited what I would see. Then it happened once again. Japanimation. 09/26/2005 Shouldn't Intelligence Design really be called Unintelligent Design? 09/30/2005 That whole Elian Gonzalez fiasco is back in the news because it all went down five years ago. I said it then and I'll say it now, if a little Mexican boy wants to go to Puerto Rico, I say let him go. 10/06/2005 Fortunately, the guy at the bodega downstairs lent my his metro card and I picked up my roomate's keys. In the past I've had my suspicions that the bodega guy works for al-Queda, but on this day he was a good man. 10/08/2005 Iran's stock market dropped 30% yesterday. Can you imagine what it smells like on the trading floor of the Iran Stock Exchange? Nobody there wears deoderant for God's sake. If you want help to turn it around I'd recommend putting all your money in Allah Body Spray. Women will pull down there burka's as low as their nose if they smell it. 10/11/2005 One night a couple years ago Tom was on the Tonight Show to promote "Castaway." It was right before Chistmas and he was talking about all these toys, such as the Carebears and Power Rangers. I was noticing that some of the stuff he was saying was amazingly close to my material at the time, and he was even saying it pretty much how I was saying it. Then he went into this whole thing about the Tranformers, about how they transform from robots into cars. He ended by singing a version of the Transformers theme song in the voice of Frank Sinatra. Dave, why would Tom Hanks steal your material, and how would he even get it in the first place? Good questions. As you probably know, when any actor goes on one of these shows all the questions/answers and jokes are pre-written. It was very clear to me that Tom was just doing material he had been given. So no, I don't think Tom had any idea what was going on. I think he paid some writer for some material and some writer gave him stolen stuff. It's not the first time it has happened, nor the last time it will happen, it just sucks when it happens to you. I'm pretty sure I know who gave him the material, but that I won't say until there is more worth in telling this story. 10/12/2005 Zucker, who has helped wreck TV by rolling out so many reality shows at the expense of real programming deserves that silver bullet. Yea, maybe it isn't wise for me to say that on here, but it isn't the first time and won't be the last time. Years ago we sent Zucker "The Anti Show", which we filmed in NBC studios (unknown to him), and he never even bothered to respond to us. That was just one opportunity he had to take a chance on something completely oringinal, edgy and ahead of the curve. Instead he green-lit dozens of awful reality shows and a couple stale sitcoms. Karma is a bitch Jeff, but don't worry, it sounds like you'll be put out of your misery soon. 11/04/2005 I'm sure Apple will find a way to capitalize on this whole porn thing, perhaps by coming out with a new iPod designed specifically for the midget porn afficionado. Speaking of midget porn, I have to be somewhere in 15 minutes. Take care. 11/07/2005 Mike Bloomberg for Mayor of NYC. Yea, he's nerdy. Yea, he's rich. But the city is safe, clean and he even rides the subway sometimes. Anyone who can deal with the smell of the 59th and Lexington stop smell is worth voting for. 11/12/2005 Saw Derailed with Jennifer Anniston last night. Pretty good flick. The moron couple behind me brought their four year old son who kicked my seat constantly and didn't shut up the entire time. I got this close to derailing his graduation to kindergarten, but calmer heads prevailed. 11/16/2005 Michael Jackson got caught walking into a woman's restroom in Bahrain earlier this week. He claimed that it was a simple mistake because he doesn't speak Arabic. It turns out that he thought the sign said, "Horrifically Misfigured Former Pop Stars Who Like to Lick Children's Heads." 12/20/2005 The transit strike is on, and while I don't want to take sides, let me say that the transit workers and their union representatives can go fuck themselves….. I haven't seen so many angry people stuck in traffic since the day before we bombed Baghdad.
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